Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Brown leads in California

Meg Whitman has spent millions and millions of dollars on her campaign for Governor of California but most voters still don't like her. In large part due to her continuing personal unpopularity she trails Jerry Brown 47-42.

Brown's lead isn't much a function of his own popularity- a plurality of voters in the state view him in a negative light with 42% seeing him favorably and 45% unfavorably. Republicans (86%) are much more strong in their dislike of Brown than Democrats (69%) are in their favor and independents split against him by a 30/55 margin as well.

Whitman, however, is even more unpopular. Only 35% of voters view her in a positive light with 49% seeing her negatively. That's a slight improvement from a 30/50 spread when PPP last polled the race in July but shows Californians still haven't grown particularly found of her.

Whitman is winning independents 45-37 and has her party base pretty much locked up at 84-8. But she's showing very little appeal to Democrats, winning just 12% of their voters and you simply can't win as a Republican in California without showing the ability to get more support across party lines than that.

PPP is finding in Gubernatorial races pretty much everywhere this year that if there's an unpopular outgoing incumbent that person's party is likely to lose the Governor's office. California is just another example of that rule- Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to be the least popular Governor in the country at a 20/69 approval rating and that can't be helping Whitman's prospects for keeping the office in GOP hands.

A lot of Democrats have complained that Brown is not running a particularly active campaign and voters in the state as a whole hold that view as well. Just 35% think Brown is running hard, compared to 74% who say the same for Whitman. But whatever Whitman's doing isn't working well enough and at this point it looks like Brown is in a solid position.

Full results here

18 comments:

Chuck T said...

Get ready for the same posters to knock this poll because Brown is ahead but will embrace your WVA poll and WI poll both out today which show Dems trailing in both.

Anonymous said...

Your own polling over the year on this race has shown Whitman picking up new support at twice the rate that Brown has. IOW, she has been slowly whittling away at Brown's lead over the course of this year. Care to comment? Can Whitman catch up fast enough?

Anonymous said...

Again, your likely voter model is garbage. There simply isn't going to be a 49/33/18 partisan split in CA this year. There is no way Dem turnout is going to be 6 points higher than 2008. And another thing, California isn't Massachusetts, FYI. If Whitman and Fiorina can win 10-15% of Dems and keep their advantage with independants, they are going to win, period.

joel said...

Well you either are going to look like the greatest seer in the world or look very bad in November because you are seeing thing no other pollster is seeing and it's on both the right and the left.

Anonymous said...

Schwarzenegger isn't going to really hurt Republicans. He's managed to achieve his goal of being a post partisan governor, only in the sense that he's hated by everyone. Very few people are going to vote against Whitman, Fiorina, and Republicans because they don't like Arnold. He's truely a RINO, and people in California know it. If you lived here you would know.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"There is no way Dem turnout is going to be 6 points higher than 2008."

You're better off comparing to 2006, 2002, or 1994. This is a midterm, when the share of independents goes down and partisans goes up.

Anonymous said...

@Dustin, fine, look at 2006, a great year for Dems. Then it would have to be nine points better for Dems this year. Dems were 40% in 2006

Dustin Ingalls said...

It's true Arnold isn't the reviled, partisan, polarizing figure most politicians are, because he's strongly disliked across the board, but most heavily still by Democrats. Where he could hurt some is not because people tie him to Fiorina or Whitman, but simply because Democrats want change, and they will turn out to vote for it. Obviously we're seeing higher projected Dem turnout than expected, and it's coming from somewhere.

DBL said...

Jerry Brown is running for governor? Of California? I would've heard about this if it were true.

People complained because the sample has way more Democrats than California ever has. The West Virginia poll has about a normal percentage of Democrats, elevated Republicans, and lower independents. In a Republican year this doesn't seem out of line.

In 2006 it was 41%D/35%R/24%I. It was one of the few states that was more Republican in 2006 than in 2004. 1998 and 2002 exit polls aren't available. In 2002 the company who does it didn't release the numbers. In 1994 the breakdown was 40%D/39%R/21%I. There's no way it's that Republican in 2010 because the state has changed since then.

The Democrats hit a high of 42% in 2008. I doubt it'll even be that high this year.

Christian Liberty said...

Brown tops out at 47.
Boxer tops out at 50.

The California polls are the most pro-D since the July market lows.
But Democrats' support will soon put in a lower high and reverse to the downside.

Currently, in the terminal phases of a 2-month long bear market rally (of minor degree), the incumbent party and its candidates is at or near their peak of support. As the market begins its next wave down soon (and takes social mood with it) support for incumbents will erode and support for challengers will increase. Whitman and Fiorina are in excellent shape and will soon have the wind at their back once again. Late deciders will swing heavily for Republican challengers.

The current extremes in optimism that are propping up flawed Democratic candidates and their failed policies likely cannot be sustained for six more weeks. Americans shall demand new ideas and new representatives that respect liberty and temper government intrusion.

Anonymous said...

Fox News poll confirms that Brown has the momentum. He was down 6 to Whitman in the last poll. Now he's tied with her in the most recent Fox poll.

Chuck T said...

You know I just checked and Rasmussen just released their poll on CA Senate and they too show that Boxer is gaining--moving from a one-point lead in their previous survey to 4-points today. Now I know many of you are pooh-poohing these CA results but it looks like another pollster, RAS, is also showing Boxer gaining ground. No word yet from RAS on governors race, but it will probably show it tight race there--perhaps tied.

Bluejoy said...

Is it possible that we are not having an election about Obama agreeing with CBS, and we are finally having an election based on candidates and not party? Maybe people in MI just like Snyder. Maybe people in WI just like Johnson. Maybe people are not as concerned about partisanship as the media breathlessly reports. Maybe Conway wins KY and Raese wins WV. Maybe because people are worried about the candidates, and not about ideology. Is it just possible?

Anonymous said...

It's funny that when holy Rasmussen shows the same thing, the knee-jerk criticism of PPP from rightards stops.

Philip said...

I'm not criticizing PPP. I'm just skeptical of a poll that shows large Democratic leads with a sample that's skewed toward the Democrats. If Rasmussen shows a similar poll (although Rasmussen's 4-point lead for Boxer is more consistent with what PPP's results would be if they weighted party turnout to 2008 levels), then that decreases the probability that it is a statistical outlier.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty: Democratic Registration has climbed to 44%. Your "facts" are as accurate as your predictions: lame, based on your ideology. Whitman and Fiorina will both go down, (just ask Al Checci and Michael Huffington if you can buy statewide office in California.) And the Democrats will most likely pick up seats in both chambers in Sacramento. Ask anyone who lives in California and can read a map.

Chuck T said...

Well Rasmussen just released his governor numbers and guess what? Brown surged five points in their poll and now holds a 1-point lead over Whitman and with leaners he's up by 2-points. So stop your crying about this poll--we now have two polls (actually 3 if you include CNN)showing both Boxer and Brown surging in CA.

Chuck T said...

Guess what? yet another poll has come out which confirms the trend PPP found in CA--SUSA which has been very bearish on Dems this year now has Boxer up by Six! and Brown up as well. I wonder what the nay sayers on this poll are saying now?

 
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