Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Burr expands lead

Buoyed by an extensive television advertising campaign Richard Burr has opened up a 49-36 lead over Elaine Marshall in North Carolina's US Senate race, with Libertarian Michael Beitler at 4%.

The main thing Burr's done over the last four weeks is consolidate the Republican base. He now has an 88-1 lead with voters in his own party compared to just 75-9 in late August. He's also increased his lead with independents from 20 points to 25 points and pushed his Democratic support from 16% to 20%.

Burr had posted net negative approval numbers in every PPP poll from February through August but in the wake of this recent blitz he's now pushed them into positive territory at 47% approving and 38% disapproving. Burr has broken the previous record for his highest approval number in PPP's polling by a wide margin- the previous best was 42% in December of 2009.

Marshall continues to be plagued by comparatively low name recognition. It's worth noting that among respondents who have an opinion of Marshall, whether it's positive or negative, she actually leads Burr 47-45. Those numbers suggest that if she was competitive with Burr resources wise this would be a toss up race.

Of course the main reason Burr's lead has expanded over the last month is that at this point the candidates' resources are not comparable. Asked who they feel has been running the more visible campaign 54% of respondents say Burr to only 19% who say Marshall. The reality is that Burr's money is allowing him to have almost complete control of the information flow to voters so even though Marshall is one of the more well liked Senate candidates Democrats have across the country she's still having trouble keeping up.

On another note despite Libertarian Beitler's limited support 56% of voters think that he should be included in all of the debates to 22% who think he should not and 22% who are unsure. Support for Beitler's inclusion comes from slight majorities of Democrats (54%) and Republicans (51%) and an overwhelming portion of independents (71%).

The race will likely tighten again once Marshall is able to start running ads to combat Burr's but for now he finds himself in his strongest position of the entire cycle.

Full results here

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The race will likely tighten again once Marshall is able to start running ads to combat Burr's"

YFR - You're f*cking retarded.

Anonymous said...

Please ban Rahm from using the R word on this blog. Or just ban him entirely.

From the planet.

dbnwsnc said...

This is very sad for NC- Indeed!

ARealSenator said...

I don't think it would have affected the outcome, but it was a shame that Marshall and primary foe Cal Cunningham had to go into a runoff. She had to continue to burn cash and wasn't able to consolidate her and Cunningham's donor base. Regardless, Burr had around $5 million in his war chest before the primary season even started so it would have taken a HUGE Burr mistake to lose with that amount of money and in this Republican-leaning environment.

Ranjit said...

Folks,

In the past, I have posted in this blog about the Organizing skills of Burr campaign in the last few months and that is reflected in the polls. Let me add one more information. After a long time UNC students are having chair persons for a republican candidate(men and women). Also, few days back, there was a presentation by Karl Rove in UNC and the whole auditorium was full. The event went without any demonstration. That is weird for a republican operative in UNC. This election is going to be like a Tsunami for Democrats. Need to stop denying it.

Jake said...

I notice last time your poll had roughly equal numbers of McCain & Obama voters, whereas this time you had 9% more McCain voters. It seems the growth in number of McCain voters that pop up in your sample, so comes greater support for Burr. I'm sure that doesn't account for nearly as much as Burr's warchest ad buys, but with the combo of Elaine running ads closer to voting time, and being in at least 3 debates next month, it can start to tighten.

Anonymous said...

Tom, somehow you were the only person that thought that Burr can be beat this year, not DSCC, not pundits and nobody practically.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"I notice last time your poll had roughly equal numbers of McCain & Obama voters"

No, McCain outnumbered Obama voters by 9 points in August too.

Anonymous said...

This senate race was never going to be close, despite the "wishful thinking" of some prognosticators.

On election night, we'll see a Burr win of 10 points or more.

Jake said...

I stand corrected. I googled it and thought I picked up the most recent poll. It was July that I was looking at. The poll dated July 6th, and and the poll dated June 8th, both had roughly equal numbers in the presidential split. It still marks a shift with recent polling in having considerably more McCain voters.

Al Pippin said...

If , in fact, Marshall is already seen as being more favorable than Burr by a 47/45 margin and is considered to be "... one of the more well liked Senate candidates Democrats have across the country...", how is it that she is "...plagued by low name recognition"? Clearly more ad time might help her amongst undecided voters, but with a 13 point deficit, its hard to imagine that more exposure time is going to make an awful lot of difference between now and November 2nd. But then again too, maybe you know something that I don't.

Anonymous said...

Does Marshall have any money at all? I haven't seen a tv ad for her since the primary campaign. Maybe 1 yard sign and 1 bumper sticker total. Burr would have won regardless given the political climate, but Marshall has been nonexistent.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"The poll dated July 6th, and and the poll dated June 8th, both had roughly equal numbers in the presidential split."

That's because we shifted in August from polling just registered voters who have a history of voting to using our likely voter screen. The 10-point enthusiasm gap in NC is about average across the country, at least in the swing races we've been polling.

"If , in fact, Marshall is already seen as being more favorable than Burr by a 47/45 margin"

You're once again misreading our polls. She is not seen as more favorable than Burr. She herself is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 34%. But among the 71% who do have an opinion of her, she leads Burr 47-45. That means if both candidates were equally well known, she'd be up 2, not down 13.

"is considered to be "... one of the more well liked Senate candidates Democrats have across the country...", how is it that she is "...plagued by low name recognition"?"

Because she has a positive 3-point favorability when most candidates are in the red. Yet 29% have no opinion of her.

 
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