Thursday, September 23, 2010

California Down on Pelosi

If there was any question Nancy Pelosi's a liability for Democrats across the country this should put it to rest- even in California voters have an unfavorable opinion of her and would like to see her replaced as Speaker.

Only 38% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of her while 48% view her unfavorably. Independents see her negatively by a more than 2:1 margin, 62/27. And Republicans (87%) are considerably more unified in their dislike of her than Democrats (62%) are in seeing her positively.

We found yesterday that Californians were planning to vote Democratic for Congress this fall by a 51-38 margin. But when it comes to keeping Pelosi as Speaker those numbers pretty much reverse with only 38% of voters saying they'd like her to continue while 50% think it's time for her to be replaced.

Running against Pelosi wasn't an effective strategy for Republican candidates in 2008 but if voters in her home state don't even want her continue as Speaker it's hard to imagine there's much of anywhere in the country where folks do want her to.

Full results here


Jon Ponder said...

California voters are savvy enough to know that they can't vote for or against Nancy Pelosi, unless they happen to live in her district. I suspect she's still very popular in San Francisco, is running virtually unopposed and will win handily.

Based on your findings, voters outside her district don't see her as an impediment to voting to reelect their own Dem rep -- or maybe (as in the case of Dan Lungren) vote against their GOP rep.

Seems like a useless metric in the poll, so I'm not sure why the question was even asked.

Anonymous said...

It does not matter what Californians think of Pelosi, just what the people in her district think of her.

Anonymous said...

Statewide polls in large states for Congressmen are of very limited utility -- that goes for this poll and the Boehner poll.

And did you ask about Pelosi's Botox injections the way you asked about Boehner's tan?

Anonymous said...

You should poll bete noire's of the left and right for each state. Palin and Pelosi are probably the most prominent targets.

wt said...

Pelosi is disliked in SF but quite safe. She can fend off any primary challenge and her closest opponent is often the Green candidate.

But I actually think that feeling of futility helps Republicans. You can't get Pelosi out of Congress, but you can isolate her by taking away her Speakership.

Also, the question was a good one to ask. She's the Dem leader. Why not ask how popular she is in her home state?

Dustin Ingalls said...

Check out the linked press release for a comparison to the numbers we got on Boehner in OH recently.

Daniel Surman said...

@Jon, Pelosi has her strongest challenger in years in John Dennis. He has been working the fundraising hard nationally (able to position himself as the anti-Pelosi to donors) while also running as an anti-war, pro gay rights candidate to try and pick up some of the disenchanted progressives.

That said, I don't see John Dennis coming within 10 points of Pelosi. But you could see him hit 35%, which for Republicans in San Francisco would be highly unusual.

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