When Mike Castle decided to run for the Senate it seemed like a bad news day for Democrats but it's actually turned out to be one of the better things that's happened for them this cycle. With Castle's defeat in the primary Tuesday Democrats will likely hold onto the Senate seat, and our polling continues to find John Carney with a double digit lead in his bid to flip the state's House seat to the Democratic column.
Carney begins the general election with a 48-37 lead over Glen Urquhart. In contrast to most races across the country Carney has a more unified base, winning 75% of Democrats to Urquhart's 66% of Republicans. Urquhart does have a 38-36 lead with independents but that's not nearly as large as most GOP candidates across the country have and certainly not as large as he needs to win a strongly Democratic leaning state like Delaware.
These numbers do represent a tightening since PPP's last poll of the race in August which found Carney ahead 48-30. What's important to note about those numbers is that Carney has remained steady. Urquhart is just increasing his support as he becomes better known and locks up more of the Republican base.
Carney has solid favorability numbers with 34% seeing him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Interestingly Urquhart has pulled even with Carney in name recognition and he's seen positively by 30% of voters and negatively by 29%.
Although it was commonly believed Urquhart would be a weaker general election candidate than primary opponent Michele Rollins, who he narrowly edged, she trailed Carney 47-37 in a head to head suggesting there was negligible difference in the November viability of the two Republicans.
Democrats aren't going to pick up much this fall but this seat continues to look like it will go into their column.
Full results here