Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Coons up big

Republicans more than likely cost themselves a Senate seat last night. Chris Coons begins the general election in Delaware with a 50-34 lead over Christine O'Donnell. Mike Castle would have led Coons by a 45-35 margin.

While O'Donnell may have ingratiated herself to Delaware's small group of registered Republicans over the last month she's turned off everyone else. An August Daily Kos/PPP poll in Delaware found her favorability rating at 23/33. It's now 29/50.

If Castle had won he would have received more Democratic support than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country. Now our polling suggests with O'Donnell's victory that Coons will win more Republicans than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country. That's because of a general unwillingness to support O'Donnell from Castle's moderate base- folks from the centrist wing of the GOP are planning to support Coons 54-31. Overall he takes a full 25% of the GOP vote while also largely consolidating the Democratic base for a 72-13 lead on that front. He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.

Only 31% of voters in the state think O'Donnell's fit to hold public office while 49% think that she is not. Even with Republicans in the state less than half at 48% believe that she is. That may seem inconsistent with her victory last night but keep in mind that our general election poll includes GOP voters who were not planning to vote in yesterday's primary. Only 33% of independents and 16% of Democrats believe O'Donnell's fit.

Coons himself is largely undefined. 36% of voters don't know enough about him to have formed an opinion and those who have split pretty evenly with 31% seeing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. But given O'Donnell's considerable baggage he will probably win this race as long as he can avoid making any serious mistakes in the next 7 weeks. And his personal numbers are likely to go up as voters in the state shift their attention to the general election and begin getting to know him better.

The result of the Delaware primary last night is the best thing that has happened to Democrats electorally since election night in 2008.

Full results here

43 comments:

wt said...

Thanks for sitting on these numbers guys. Ugh.

Well, the O'Donnell supporters said better to have a Democrat than Castle, so that's what they'll get I suppose.

At least the NRSC won't be tempted to spend money here, and can devote the same resources it had planned to on other races.

Anonymous said...

Well we will see won't we. I know it is Delaware...but even those people can realize that electing a guy to the left of obowma as Coons is would be beyond stupid. As the facts about where Coons stands on issues comes out...watch out!

Anonymous said...

Really a poll by the kooks at Daily Kooks is what you are going with.....


And she was supposed to lose to Castle as well, maybe the Reb. Party will start to pay attention that RINOS have to go, we don't want and or need them anymore.

rebekahhuang said...

She might not win that is yet to be seen. What we do know is that the people of Delaware held an election and she won the Republican primary for the state of Delaware.
If the Republican party then rejects the will of the people of Delaware then it isn't Ms. O'Donnell that will lose in Nov it will be the Republican party when they prove that they aren't in Washington to represent the people but, rather their own position and power.

ALICE'S ANGLE said...

I hope you are wrong about Christine O"Donnell. I hope she wins for WE THE PEOPLE. I know she will vote my values and beliefs. I know I won't be represented by Chris Coons. Just start with the Abortion (unborn baby) issue. I don't think Abortion has worked for our country - it has encouraged irresponsibility and sexual crime cover-ups. CHRISTINE HAS MY VOTE!

Anonymous said...

"An August Daily Kos/PPP poll"? Wow! The LAST word in impartial opinion polls. I really am glad we have Liberals in this country, even though Liberals with integrity such as the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan seem to be increasingly rare. But a legitimate, unbiased poll from "Daily Kos"? Anyone who believes that is waiting somewhere in the desert for their ride in a UFO.

Anonymous said...

Well, the O'Donnell supporters said better to have a Democrat than Castle, so that's what they'll get I suppose.

What's the difference???????? Castle votes like a donkey as it is.

Anonymous said...

I would rather have a democrat than another Rep in name only like Castle. If the committee doesnt try to help ODonnell win, I will never give another dollar to the Republican party. This country needs conservatives, not more moderates. Let the dems keep power until they screw things up so bad they will never get elected again.

DBL said...

In 2008 the Delaware electorate favored Democrats 48%-31%. Tom has the breakdown this year as Democrats 47%-38%. For O'Donnell to win 25,000 Republicans need to move to Delaware and register to vote by October 9. So get a move on. Quit the job. Pack up the car. Move to Wilmington.

Anonymous said...

If the GOP would just let democrats take credit for democrat ideas then we would all win in the long run. But no, we have been stuck on short term Karl Rove style thinking for far too long. The DNC and GOP are playing it as a team sports while the voters are playing to better the country. Sure they may vote Coons this time. But they will know next time. I'd rather have that than a Castle who will vote the same as Coons such that it smears all "conservatives". If we keep voting for the lesser 'evil' then we keep trending toward 'evil' and nobody learns until it is too late.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday O'donnell was down 25 pts. Now it is just 16 pts. She has made up 9 pts in about 12 hours. That is the big MO! By next week she should be in the lead!

Anonymous said...

Obviously you, the NRSC, and public bashing Carl Rove's of the world just don't get it. America was promised change - Washington won't give it, the parties won't give it, the men won't give. It's time for the women to get it right.

Chuck T said...

The interesting thing is that even if Castle had won, Coons was gaining and Castle was under 50% and the question would have been then would the tea partiers who supported O'Donnell work and or vote for Castle--I think Coons could have been competitve with Castle too, but now he is (almost) a sure thing.

Chuck T said...

Anonymous said...
Really a poll by the kooks at Daily Kooks is what you are going with.....

Did you notice that a "poll by the kooks" also got this primary right? and showed Castle was in trouble. I didn't see Rasmussen doing any recent polling, but that's how they operate over there. Instead they will poll the vitally important Senate race in VT or the cliff hanger race for Gov of North Dakota! It's because Rasmussen doesn't want to go out on the limb--where PPP does poll the critical races just before the primaries and you know what? their track record has been pretty darn good this year.

Anonymous said...

wt said "At least the NRSC won't be tempted to spend money here, and can devote the same resources it had planned to on other races." I think you spoke a little too soon, NRSC announced today they would donate the maximum amount allowable, $42,000 to O'Donnell's campaign.

datechguy said...

Well if the election is held today Republicans are in big trouble.

Oh How about that the election isn't held today.

That doesn't make this poll false, it makes it a snapshot of a moment in time.

What were obama's approval ratings in Jan 2009? Jan 2010

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Thanks for sitting on these numbers guys. Ugh."

I know you're a Castle guy, but I don't think PPP putting out actual numbers would have changed the game this late or at any time. Pollsters just aren't that powerful. The fervor for O'Donnell was too strong. Besides, it makes little difference whether you know Coons gets exactly 50% against O'Donnell and only 35% against Castle because we spelled out the huge difference in electability in several blog and Twitter posts leading up to the vote. And those differences were covered in the media.

""An August Daily Kos/PPP poll"? Wow! The LAST word in impartial opinion polls"

WE conducted the poll for them, using the same methodology as all of our public polls we report on this blog which have proven to be so accurate.

"Yesterday O'donnell was down 25 pts. Now it is just 16 pts. She has made up 9 pts in about 12 hours. That is the big MO! By next week she should be in the lead!"

Nice satire.

"I think you spoke a little too soon, NRSC announced today they would donate the maximum amount allowable, $42,000 to O'Donnell's campaign."

Money down the drain, but it's only symbolic so they don't p off the Tea Partiers anymore than they already have. There will be no RNC independent expenditures in DE from here on out.

kfd211 said...

NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, Republican Senator from Texas, just released a statement announcing the committee’s support: Let there be no mistake: The National Republican Senatorial Committee – and I personally as the committee’s chairman – strongly stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees,...

JT @ Google said...

This is liberal media bias at its best to indicate to the people that Coons is going to win in November. Let's look at this realistically Castle was clearly beating Coons by double digits. O'Donnell clearly beat Castle, how in your wildest dreams does this make Coons now the front runner? If the Republicans either back Coons or no one and do not back O'Donnell they should disband and go home now.

wt said...

"Yesterday O'donnell was down 25 pts. Now it is just 16 pts. She has made up 9 pts in about 12 hours. That is the big MO! By next week she should be in the lead!"

You misread the PPP preview. The difference between O'Donnell and Castle was 26 points, i.e. a Castle lead by 10 and a Coons lead of 16.

"I know you're a Castle guy, but I don't think PPP putting out actual numbers would have changed the game this late or at any time."

I know. I'm just frustrated and lashing out. You had the balls do to the polling in the first place and deserve a lot of credit for these high risk, high reward polls.

AG said...

All you O'Donnell supporters have blinders on. Take a good look at the Republicans in Congress. Summary opposition to every single item on the Democratic agenda. 400 day long filibusters of Obama appointees who get confirmed without vocal opposition.

Castle as a liberal is a notion so ridiculous as to be obscene. Don't you dare try to convince me he would have voted any differently than O'Donnell.

Ranjit said...

Dustin,

Do you think the numbers will change after all the publicity and huge cash that is flowing into her account? Do you think,lot of independents will have more sympathy with all the mudsling on her?

NRH said...

O'Donnell supporters who think she can repeat her comeback in the general are forgetting one very important detail: everyone gets to vote in the general election, not just registered Republicans. When a Democrat holds his base in a Democratic state and picks up a quarter of the Republican vote (those who acknowledge that O'Donnell is too nutty to support - believing she literally has enemies hiding in her bushes, etc), that's an easy Democratic win.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"O'Donnell clearly beat Castle, how in your wildest dreams does this make Coons now the front runner?"

I don't know. Maybe because that's how people are intending to vote?

Anonymous said...

This is one of the most self-serving articles I have ever read. First off PPP trumpets the fact that 49% of the people polled believe Ms O'Donnell is "unfit to hold office" without noting that they FAILED to ask that same question about Mr. Coons. A more telling fact, again without comment from PPP, is that their poll revealed that 70 % of those polled were unfavorable or unsure of BOTH Coons and O'Donnell. I have no way of knowing what the voters in Delaware will decide but PPP's poll tells us nothing, other then that PPP is trying to influence the outcome.

Anonymous said...

That poll was taken BEFORE she won so it's invalid........

Anonymous said...

It'll interesting to see what the final margin is - my bet is it'll be less than the 16% from this poll. How *much* less will really tell the tale about what happens on Election Night on Nov. 2...

techster5 said...

Those that call themselves republicans and still choose to support coons over odonnel are traitors in the very least.

Christian Liberty said...

Support and contributions are pouring into O'Donnell so fast the website crashed. Those who think the Delaware race will be solid blue are delusional.

First post-primary poll, O'Donnell would be within single digits, withing 5 or 6 by month-end, within the margin of error by the end of October. The race will be a tossup soon enough.

Anonymous said...

As a conservative I would rather have a Democrat in the Senate voting like a Democrat than a Republican voting like a Democrat. If it talks like a duck, if it acts like a duck, if it looks like a duck, well...you know the rest.

DBL said...

For Christine O'Donnell to win she must get 88% of all Republican votes. This includes RINOs who conservatives are saying are really Democrats who don't belong in the Republican Party. She'd have to get 12% of all Democrats. Then she'd have to get 67% of all independents, winning them 2 to 1. No Republican is polling anywhere close to that with independents.

Ranjit said...

Folks,

As we are having this discussion, Christine O Donnell has crossed 2 revised targets. First it was 50K, then 200K and now she is going for 350K. This is all in the last 15 hours. There is no way, these poll numbers will hold up. Just give 2 weeks and see the new polls at the start of october

Chuck T said...

Christian Liberty said: Support and contributions are pouring into O'Donnell so fast the website crashed. Those who think the Delaware race will be solid blue are delusional.

My response: Obviously she has a very dedicated fan base but web contributions don't predict victory or else we would have President Howard Dean, who had a very dedicated activist base on the left.

Anna said...

"PPP surveyed 958 likely Delaware voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of
error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify."



Your poll means nothing now - it was taken before yesterday's vote. Nice try, though.

PackMan97 said...

So, Obama says don't turn the car keys over to the guys that drove the car into the ditch.

Looks like Republicans were listening.

This isn't about electing the best candidate in many races. It's about not rewarding the Republicans for their craptastic 8 years under Bush.

It's not all about Obama. It's also about the guys that ran the country into a ditch and made such a mess that resulted in Obama being elected.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"My response: Obviously she has a very dedicated fan base but web contributions don't predict victory or else we would have President Howard Dean, who had a very dedicated activist base on the left."

Likewise, a President Ron Paul.

"Your poll means nothing now - it was taken before yesterday's vote. Nice try, though."

Polls are only ever a snapshot in time. But these are more reflective of the real state of the race than Rasmussen's frequent one-day post-primary polls that invariably show a huge surge for the Republican candidates that then dies down when the coverage of their primary win fades.

Robet said...

Old poll. This needs to be re-polled as so much has changed in 3-4 days.

LAE Cripps [SL: Profesora Farigoule] said...

what those outside delaware have to realize is the intense dislike of many moderates here of all political affiliations of having our local politics co-opted by big-money PAC's with outside agendas. O'Donnell's will struggle against the association with all her outside endorsements in the general election

DBL said...

Oh yeah. I get that. Because when franchise taxes on outside corporations incorporated in Delaware supply about one-fifth of the state revenue you have a problem with people outside pouring money into the state.

kalojohn said...

Have you run a poll asking if a male candidate was fit for the office they were running for? Seriously, provide list please.

kalojohn said...

Have you ever conducted a poll analyzing the "fitness" of a male candidate? Please post list. Alvin Greene?

Tom Jensen said...

We asked if Castle was fit on that very same poll

tncdel said...

Castle as well was leading O' Donnell in the polls. And she trounced him. I expect her to do the same with Coons.

I live in New Castle County. Take it from me, not many of us here have a high regard for Coons. As county exec, he was INEPT, to put it kindly.

And we still begrudge him for being the first in many years to raise our property taxes.

We also don't forget his ties to the Freeberry / Gordon corruption, that he helped cover up, in return for the county exec job.

Harry Reid calls Coons his "pet." Reid is the poster child for what's wrong with Congress. For example, the overwhelming majority of voters are opposed to illegal aliens. But Reid not only wants to give them amnesty, but also even wants to give them the "Dream Act" to go to college! That's insane PC madness. Over 20 million illegals here in the U.S. already, and Reid wants to encourage them to invite all their extended family members and job-stealing amigos to come here too ... as they will certainly do if we don't stop Reid's amnesty and "Dream Act" treachery from being passed.

And NO we don't want Reid's trained pet Coons rubber-stamping whatever Reid tries to slip past us voters!

 
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