You could make a pretty strong argument that Texas is the heart of the Republican Party and the top choice of GOP voters there for the 2012 Presidential nomination is Newt Gingrich. It's becoming more and more clear that Gingrich will be a very legitimate contender if he does indeed make a bid for the White House in two years.
Gingrich is at 23%, with Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin tied at 19% and Mitt Romney at 17%. His particular strength is with Republican men. He has 29% with them, putting him fully 11 points ahead of Huckabee and Romney with that demographic. That's a trend we're seeing in our polling nationally as well- our August survey found Gingrich at 28% with men but only 14% with women, a much larger gender gap in his support than any of the other candidates showed.
Many have assumed that Palin will be the candidate of choice for conservatives if she launches a White House bid but Gingrich beats her out on that front 24-21 with voters in Texas.
The other interesting thing on the 2012 GOP numbers in Texas is that Ron Paul is not getting much support in his home state- only 8%. Paul does not have a serious chance at the Republican nomination and if he wants to get a serious airing for his views in 2012 it's probably going to have to come as an independent candidate in the general election.
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While Romney is still the frontrunner in my rough 2012 Republican National Convention delegate estimate, Gingrich recently overtook Huckabee for second place.
If I was an advisor to Gingrich, my advice to him would be to run.
There must be a lot of good old boy fornicators in Texas to propell Gingrich to the top of the GOP list.
When was the last time the Texas Republican primary made or broke a presidential campaign?
"Paul does not have a serious chance at the Republican nomination and if he wants to get a serious airing for his views in 2012 it's probably going to have to come as an independent candidate in the general election."
Except that throughout the campaign last time, he gained massive support due to the large fundraising and enthusiastic campaigning by the grassroots.
The same thing could happen this time, and he is helped by straw polls and caucuses where the depth of his support (as opposed to the width) can shine through.
"The other interesting thing on the 2012 GOP numbers in Texas is that Ron Paul is not getting much support in his home state- only 8%. Paul does not have a serious chance at the Republican nomination and if he wants to get a serious airing for his views in 2012 it's probably going to have to come as an independent candidate in the general election."
LOL, Ron Paul has said on many occasions that he will not run as an independent. If he runs, he will run hard. His grassroots will propel him to the top. He will win the Ames straw poll, Iowa Caucuses, and many other states. He will raise tens of millions of dollars before anyone else begins to think about winning.
Way to bring out the commenters with the anti-Paul talk.
His grassroots will propel him to the top, just as it did in 2008. Wait.
You Paul supporters are pretty delusional. Where was his support "massive" in 2008?
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