Thursday, September 2, 2010

GOP leads in Alaska Gov, House

The Senate race in Alaska may be looking closer than expected but Republicans are in a strong position to keep both the Governor's office and the state's House seat in their party's hands:

-Sean Parnell has seen a dramatic reduction in his approval numbers since PPP last polled the state in January but still leads Democratic opponent Ethan Berkowitz 55-37. Parnell's approval stands at a solid +14 spread (50/36) but that's a 25 point reduction since he was at +39 (58/19) earlier this year. Still Parnell has 85% support from Republicans even after a weaker than expected primary showing last week and he also enjoys a 49-39 advantage with independents.

Berkowitz actually has pretty good favorability numbers at 41/36. That's better than folks like John Kasich in Ohio and Bill Brady in Illinois who appear primed to win their state's Governorships. But Berkowitz is a Democrat running in a Republican state in a Republican year and that trumps his personal popularity.

-In the House race Don Young leads challenger Harry Crawford 55-36. Young has decent approval ratings for a House incumbent this year at 49/44. Crawford is mostly unknown with 53% of voters saying they have no opinion about him although the ones who do see him positively by a 25/22 margin.

Young leads Crawford 47-39 with independents, and picks up 85% of the Republican vote to Crawford's 78% of the Democratic vote. Young was reelected by only 5 points in 2008 but seems to have beat back the trouble he had that year.

It looks like the only real place there's hope for Democrats in Alaska this year is the Senate race.

Full results here

1 comment:

Christian Liberty said...

Doubtful Democrats even have a chance in the senate. Miller has a superior resume, an enthusiastic fundraising base, and aligns with the mainstream of Alaska on the life issue.

McAdams' base and Murkowski's base have a significant overlap (Anchorage, southern panhandle, and Alaskan Natives). Miller's popularity in the fast-growing exurbs should lead to a victory in November, just as it did in August.

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