The Illinois poll we'll release this week won't do much to change the conventional wisdom on either the Senate or Gubernatorial race in the state but it does have one pretty surprising finding: Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped into negative territory even with likely voters in his home state. 44% approve of the job he's doing while 49% say they disapprove.
Obama's home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that's no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he's doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it's not what it had been previously.
Does this mean Obama would lose Illinois if there was an election tomorrow? Of course not. The likely electorate in the state for the midterm is much more conservative than you would see for a Presidential election with voters on this poll having supported Obama by only 15 points in 2008 compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. Still it's a sign that even on the home front Obama can't be expected to be much of a help this fall.
We'll have Senate numbers tomorrow and Governor numbers on Thursday.