Friday, September 3, 2010

Ohio Miscellaneous

-Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot in Ohio 47-41. GOP voters are planning to support their party's candidates by a 94-1 margin, really a remarkable degree of unity. They also have a 36-23 advantage with independents. The question in Ohio is not whether Republicans will pick up House seats, but just how big the number will be.

-In his attempt at a political comeback former Senator Mike DeWine leads incumbent Attorney General Richard Cordray 44-40. Cordray's doing better than either Ted Strickland or Lee Fisher and actually leads 40-34 with independents. But DeWine's getting 80% of Republicans to Cordray's 70% of Democrats. Ohio voters are pretty ambivalent toward DeWine with 35% saying they have a favorable opinion of him, 33% unfavorable, and 32% holding no opinion one way or the other.

-LeBron James' favorability in Ohio is 19% with 34% of voters viewing him negatively. Those numbers actually aren't that much worse than what we found for him nationally in July at 19/29. There's a very large racial divide when it comes to his numbers- African Americans see him favorably 58/16, while whites have a negative opinion 15/37. Interestingly James' numbers are slightly better with folks who describe themselves as Cavs fans (28/42) than those who don't (14/30).

-Ohio is pretty emblematic of the national trend of voters hating Republicans and voting for them anyway. Only 29% of voters in the state think the GOP is heading in the right direction while 55% disapprove of it. With independents it's a 13/61 spread. Nevertheless the party is poised to pick up the Governor's office and hold on to its Senate seat.

Full results here


Christian Liberty said...

When voters say the Republican Party is going in the wrong direction, it means they are too much like Democrats.

Christian Liberty said...

Voters are disappointed that Republicans are becoming too much like Democrats. Republicans standing up for conservative-libertarian principles makes voters more disposed toward voting Republican. And governing that way would only cement voter support for Republicans even more.

Dustin Ingalls said...

CL, you live in a fantasy land. Read the crosstabs and stop selling a line of bull no one else believes. A 43% plurality of Ohioans see the GOP as too conservative. How does that correspond to 55% or even a sizable plurality less than that thinking the GOP is moving to the left?

Christian Liberty said...

If the tea-party candidates are so extreme, why are they so popular?

"In the real world, as opposed to the one inhabited by most of the media, this new breed of anti-spending, pro-Constitution, limited-government candidates does not appear to be dragging Republicans to defeat."

Christian Liberty said...

While the leftist media may have successfully bullied voters into thinking that conservative is somehow a dirty word, majorities repeatedly take conservative positions on the majority of key issues. When conservatives get their message out, Americans agree with conservatives.

Christian Liberty said...

CNN Poll: Majority says government a threat to citizens' rights

By this count, 56% of Americans are operationally conservative. And they will likely appreciate the revitalized conservative party protecting them from the tyranny of the federal government.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"If the tea-party candidates are so extreme, why are they so popular?"

Most of them are not very popular. They're just doing well in the horse races because they're not the incumbent, and because GOP voters are more likely to vote than Democratic voters.

Favorability numbers for the main Tea Party candidates versus their Democratic (or independent) opponents in our latest polls:

Ken Buck 26/46 (-20)
Michael Bennet 32/48 (-16)
Bennet +4

Sharron Angle 36/52 (-16)
Harry Reid 44/53 (-9)
Reid +7

Marco Rubio 40/37 (3)
Charlie Crist 42/44 (-2)
Rubio +5

Rand Paul 34/42 (-8)
Jack Conway 31/29 (2)
Conway +10

Dan Maes 23/38 (-15)
John Hickenlooper 50/33 (17)
Hickenlooper +32

Ron Johnson 20/18 (2)
Russ Feingold 42/42 (0)
Johnson +2

Rick Scott 28/49 (-21)
Alex Sink 35/23 (12)
Sink +33

Joe Miller 36/52 (-16)
Scott McAdams 23/24 (-1)
McAdams +15

Pat Toomey 36/33 (3)
Joe Sestak 28/38 (-10)
Toomey +13

Nikki Haley 29/26 (3)
Vincent Sheheen 17/16 (1)
Haley +2

Brian Sandoval 42/31 (11)
Rory Reid 34/48 (-14)
Sandoval +25

Scott Walker 36/28 (8)
Tom Barrett 28/30 (-2)
Walker +10

So of the major Tea Partiers, only Rubio and Toomey are better liked than the Democrat, and they're both seen positively by only 3 points. In 6 of the 12 races, the Democrat is liked better than the Republican. The most popular by far is Hickenlooper, and he's trouncing Maes even without Tancredo, who is vowing to stay in the race. The next most popular is Sink, another Democrat, who's leading Rick Scott. Only after that do you find Sandoval, who's demolishing Rory Reid.

Christian Liberty said...

thanks for the numbers:

In CO sen, NV sen, FL sen, WI sen, PA sen, SC gov, NV gov, WI gov the Republican has lower unfavorables.

In KY sen, AK sen, PA sen, NV gov, WI gov the Republican has higher favorables.

Buck leads in polls by margins that are twice the +4 favorability spread. Rand Paul leads by double digits. Joe Miller leads by twice the margin of error.

"They're just doing well in the horse races because they're not the incumbent"

Non-incumbent Democrats in KY sen, AK sen, FL gov, NV sen can't leverage the supposed unpopularity of their opponent. More NV LV believe Reid's views are extreme than believe that of Angle (RR).

I think you helped prove my point.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Buck leads in polls by margins that are twice the +4 favorability spread."

Not ours. Bennet +3 just before the primary.

"Joe Miller leads by twice the margin of error."

He leads by 8 in our poll, which is actually three times the MOE, which is 2.7%.

"I think you helped prove my point."

No, your point was that they're popular. Other than maybe Sandoval, they're not. Few politicians or candidates are in this climate, regardless of party.

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