Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Palin 2012 in Alaska

If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012 she can't count on a whole lot of support back home. 62% of Alaska Republicans are opposed to her making a White House bid and she gets only 17% in a hypothetical 2012 primary in the state tying for her second with Mike Huckabee behind Mitt Romney.

It's not that Alaska Republicans don't like Palin- a majority of them still do. But there's a significant disconnect between GOP voters in the state liking Palin and thinking she should run for President, a divide we've seen with Republicans nationally and one that presents the biggest threat to a possible Palin candidacy. Even among voters with a favorable opinion of Palin in the state just 39% think she should launch a 2012 bid.

Romney gets 20% to 17% for Palin and Huckabee, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul. Among Republicans with a favorable opinion of Palin she pulls only 30% and not surprisingly she gets just 3% with ones who don't like her.

Among voters who say they support the goals of the Tea Party only 31% want Palin to run and even with ones who consider themselves to be active members of the Tea Party there are still only 42% who think she should make the leap.

The basic findings of this poll are the same we see everywhere- Republicans like Sarah Palin. They just don't want her to be President. And that holds true even in her home state.

Full results here

24 comments:

Zornorph said...

I don't think Palin is planning to run. Oh, she'll make some feints to keep the media buzzing, but in the end it will be more about who she endorses rather than her running herself and tarnishing her brand. Nor would I see her taking a job in a GOP administration, either. What job would she do, anyway?

Anonymous said...

Count me as a conservative that loves Palin, but doesn't want her as GOP's presidential candidate for obvious reasons.

Anonymous said...

Palin is a moron. So hopefully she is the GOP's nominee.


OBAMA 2012!

Robert_Paulson said...

You guys poll Palin much more than public interest or good practice would ever recommend. Other than profit and self-promotion, do you have a legitimate reason for doing so? Honestly, why the Palin obsession?

Anonymous said...

There's a long way to go between now and November of 2012. Polls like this are meaningless at this point, which makes me think that it's politically motivated in the first place. (That is, yet another attempt to convince people that Sarah Palin is not presidential material.)

Again, lots can (and will) happen between now and November.

Anonymous said...

You asked an odd question.
Republicans and most people in Alaska know that Palin is NOT running for President.
AND, most people in Alaska identify as Independents.
PPP as a pollster is not valid.
If you can't figure out what questions to ask , how can you be trusted giving us unadulltered results. You can't.

Anonymous said...

After all polling outfits were off by 20 points in the Murkowski-Miller race, I find it puzzling how PPP thinks it now has an accurate poll.

Palin also over-performed polls in her run for Governor by some 30 points, so I would take all polls in Alaska with a big dose of salt!

Anonymous said...

You might want to smell check your poll. A sitting US Senator with a 30 point lead is expected to concede the primary to Miller today due to Palin's late endorsement. She has become a political kingmaker with an enviable record.

Personally I don't think she'll run for President, but if she did she would win Alaska.

Richard in California

hebertway said...

Mike Huckabee is my choice by far...He's better than the other, you can conclude that by listening to him and check out his record as a public personality.

Go Mike 2012 Go!!!

wt said...

Count me as a conservative who likes the "energy" Palin brings to the party, but doesn't want her running for President.

So I guess I'm solidly in line with the other GOP presidential hopefuls.

Anonymous said...

I have to be honest, 51% approval rating within your own (state) party doesn't impress me. That's actually a pretty poor showing.

Anonymous said...

This is from a Polling service that got kicked off of Daily Kos? This poll will be used by every pundit on the left and hold it up as gospel.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"There's a long way to go between now and November of 2012"

The Alaska primary is in March 2012.

"Honestly, why the Palin obsession?"

She seeks publicity for herself and puts herself into races by endorsing far-right candidates that often seem to end up doing well because of her publicity for them. She's a political celebrity who's the best known and best liked figure among Republican voters. Why not poll her?

"AND, most people in Alaska identify as Independents."

What does that have to do with the Republican presidential primary or this poll?

"After all polling outfits were off by 20 points in the Murkowski-Miller race, I find it puzzling how PPP thinks it now has an accurate poll."

We didn't poll that race.

"This is from a Polling service that got kicked off of Daily Kos?"

You must be confusing us (don't know how) with Research 2000. We were the ones who just got hired by Kos.

NRH said...

Wow, there's a lot of idiots commenting anonymously today.

Why would PPP poll Palin in Alaska? Because until you get results to prove she's not gaining any traction, her rabid supporters will insist it's biased to *not* include her in future polls.

PPP didn't poll Alaska's Republican primary. Moore Research did, in July, and found Murkowski with a 32-point lead. Multiple pollsters confirmed that Murkowski had (and even today still has) a high approval rating statewide - she just didn't win over the Republican primary electorate, despite winning fairly high marks from most other groups in the state. PPP never polled that race in the first place, and nobody polled it within a month of the primary. That's a lack of polling, not bad polling.

It was Research 2000 that got booted by DKos for their poor accuracy (as demonstrated by 538's pollster ratings). PPP, on the other hand, was among the top three in those ratings and is the new pollster.

Anonymous said...

The opposition to Palin running is all about the fear of not winning. Even Palin's greatest supporters understand that there's a significant number of people out there who hate her. She could win, if things break right, but the GOP needs to nominate a surer bet.

I like Palin, and I absolutely despise her haters. She's smarter than most of them. She makes the MSM look idiotic and advances the liberal media narrative like no other individual can. That being said, I'd rather not see her run. The hate just runs too deep in some and it will be exploited by any Democrat for maximum gain.

Anonymous said...

"I have to be honest, 51% approval rating within your own (state) party doesn't impress me. That's actually a pretty poor showing."

It's something Obama cannot pull off in Illinois.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"It's something Obama cannot pull off in Illinois."

Uh, no. Obama has an 87% approval rating among Illinois Democrats.

Anonymous said...

This is in line with other polls that show Palin has a 12% approval when put up against the other possible Republican candidates. She is near bottom of the pack for a Presidency. She does have the far right vote, but moderate Republicans and Independents will never vote for her. IN another poll, it shows that when asked who would they absolutely NOT vote for, 21% of Conservative Republicans said Palin.

The Interesting Times said...

Strange to see in Palin's home state, but about par for the course when compared to her numbers in the other states.

John said...

Couldn't you include a question about who's endorsement carries the most weight? It would be interesting to see if Palin really is such a king/queen-maker.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Couldn't you include a question about who's endorsement carries the most weight? It would be interesting to see if Palin really is such a king/queen-maker."

Given that she is the best known and best liked candidate among Republican voters, I'd wager voters would say her endorsement is most crucial. I don't think there would be much of a contest, actually. But that's between her and the other four. And it doesn't necessarily mean her endorsement actually does have a decisive impact relative to considerations like party ID, name recognition, the economy, ideology, money spent and paid media, etc.

NRH said...

Palin is smarter than... possibly some members of the cast of Jersey Shore, at best. She's even less literate than Bush, less eloquent than Dan Quayle, and has less policy understanding than her own caricature on Saturday Night Live. She's never advanced a coherent argument in her life that had more depth than the bumper sticker she read it from.

Anonymous said...

"She's never advanced a coherent argument in her life that had more depth than the bumper sticker she read it from."

You mean "the hand she read it from"?

Anonymous said...

Palin and Huckabee are likeable enough, but we need serious brain power in the Oval office. Romney graduated cum laude at Harvard in both law and business. His intellect is like Bill Clinton's mind on steroids, except here we have a sterling moral character devoid of skeletons in his closet. He is right out of hollywood casting. Hell, he even looks presidential. Every endeavor that he has attempted, he has turned it around. Even his health care reform was good until the democrat who replaced him screwed it up. We need an adult who is capable in the white house, and by the way, concerning his being a Mormon, you libs surely like Harry Reid, who is a Mormon. Go Mitt!! db

 
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