We're going to let you pick one of the states we poll this week and here are the choices:
-Colorado. While there's consensus on the Governor's race there the polling on the Senate race is all over the place and we haven't looked at it since right before the primary.
-Connecticut. Quinnipiac shows the Senate race getting tight. The Blumenthal campaign's polling does not. And we haven't polled there since January.
-Washington. I think this is going to be a 2 point race all the way to election day with few voters getting persuaded and it all coming down to who shows up. But a poll yesterday showed a wider Murray lead and like with Colorado we haven't gone there since before the primary.
-West Virginia. There hasn't been much polling from anyone but Rasmussen and it's always good to get a second voice- do Republicans really have a shot or not? (We would not poll the House races in the state, sorry.)
-Wisconsin. I think the Senate race in the state is very similar to Washington- going to be close right to the end. But it's a little more susceptible to a wider shift with Ron Johnson much less well defined than Dino Rossi. And it would be interesting to see the Governor's race once the final match is set.
Voting's open until Thursday morning and whoever you vote for let us know what other stuff you think we should poll on in these states.
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27 comments:
WI
That's a tough one!
What does it matter? Robo polls are crap anyway and they really shouldn't be relied on for accurate information about a race.
Ron Johnson is an honest businessman with mainstream views, while Russ Feingold is a corrupt political hack with extremist views. It couldn't be more obvious that Ron Johnson is the right choice.
Haha why bother reading our blog if you think our polls are crap?
Because I'm a pollster, too, and I need to know when you're releasing faulty data about races I'm working on because plenty of media idiots cite it anyway.
I vote WI. I think both the senate and governnors races will be tight--but I'd like confirmation. It's been a while. I won't respond to Christian Liberty because I don't necessarily think that this is the place to be putting out political statements.
If it's Washington, let's find out how many people agree that a teabagger float featuring a caricature of President Obama whipping a white boy has racist overtones.
Seriously, are teabaggers so retarded that they think people don't see their racially-charged "black people want to enslave white people for revenge" message?
Much to the chagrin of Democrats everywhere (except, of course, the fine folks at PPP), Robo polls will outperform human polls once again this election cycle. Human polls introduce too much response bias, as interviewees provide "politically correct" but inaccurate answers to their human interviewers.
Arghhh Connecticut never wins, but I'm really interested in some of the races, especially the fourth district House race. I'm also interested in gay marriage acceptance in the state since it's been there for 2 years now. I'd also be interested in seeing Metro-North's approval ratings :P
Tom, would you be polling West Virginia 2012 governor where Moore Capito might run?
Whichever state wins, I'd like to see 2012 Republican Presidential primary polls.
BTW, did you poll the 2012 GOP Presidential race in Delaware?
Looks like you got the DE-Sen primary quite nicely. Congratulations!
WI
If you poll CT, make sure to poll the Gov race, too.
I'm interested in more polling in my state, Washington, but I have real reservations about IRV polling in a state where 35% of registered voters don't have landliines (myself and most on my senior community included)
Way to go on DE-Sen!
I vote for Colorado and Wisconsin this week.
Tom,
Does it cost significantly more money or time to poll the house districts in small states? I noticed you did them in Maine but not New Hampshire recently and was wondering why they're only polled sometimes.
Could you poll Washington regardless of whether it wins the primary or not. On your RV-screen Murray led Rossi by only 3. I'm curious to know what would show up on your LV screen since the LV results have been wayyy more brutal to dems than the RV ones.
Wisconsin - Russ Feingold: Ask if they believe he is the independent he makes himself out to be.
Ask about Paul Ryan's approvals statewide. He lives in Wisconsin.
Feingold and Johnson have been sparing over drilling in the Great Lakes. Is that a popular proposal?
Generic congressional ballot. WI-07, WI-08, and maybe WI-03 are up for grabs for Republicans.
___
West Virginia:
Do you want more earmarking of federal money to West Virginia?
Robert Byrd approval
Something about coal interests/mountaintop removal
West Virginia Governor 2012
Connecticut - we need some more (and more that inspire some confidence in their accuracy) polling than Ras and the Q-poll.
I would poll Senate, Gov, CD4 and CD5.
On issues I would ask a question about gay marriage given its been a year or so now, and on progressive taxation as that is a perennial debate in the state house and seems like it is starting to show up in the Gov race.
"I'm interested in more polling in my state, Washington, but I have real reservations about IRV polling in a state where 35% of registered voters don't have landliines (myself and most on my senior community included)"
That hasn't yet proven to be an issue with accuracy. We nailed the jungle primary for Senate exactly.
"I vote for Colorado and Wisconsin this week."
We're only doing one of these because we're also doing CA and MI.
Tom, do CT and/or WV this week - those two are the whole Senate ballgame.
Connecticut, please.
I know professional wrestlers and corporate executives can win office. But, can corporate professional wrestling executives win public office? Now that's a new frontier in American history.
How about some out-of-the-box questioning?
MI: State Bank like in N. Dakota, yay or nay? Virg Bernero is pushing it.
CA: Who has the better resume for governor, J. Brown or M. Witman? I don't think that was directly polled.
WI: Approve or disapprove of the community-owned structure of the Green Bay Packers?
Whichever state you poll, you should ask which tax policy voters prefer:
1. Obama's plan to limt tax cuts to income below $250K
2. Extend all of Bush's tax cuts
3. Let all the tax cuts expire to reduce the deficit.
Colorado Senate Race
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