Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Hayes' Internal Polling

Robin Hayes' internal polling says he's losing to Larry Kissell.

I don't have any insider information to that effect, but there's no way he would be leading off his media campaign with a negative ad all the way back in June if that wasn't the case.

Hayes ran negative ads against Kissell in October last time, and Kissell didn't have the funds to respond as effectively. Hayes just barely managed to pull out the win.

Hayes clearly think he's even more vulnerable this year, and the even worse news for him is that this campaign will be fought on a completely different playing field with many more resources available to Kissell than he had the last time around.

Unless things turn around nationally between now and November, Hayes will be cleaning out his office come this fall.


Chris said...

I doubt Hayes' polling has him behind. Rather it probably shows nobody knows who Larry Kissell is.

I would wager Kissell's name ID is <25% (Fav and Unfav combined). So Hayes' ad is more to go on the offense and define Kissell than allow Kissell to set the agenda and define himself.

I'm not saying Hayes is up by a wide margin, it's probably close, but I doubt Hayes is behind.

Anonymous said...

Chris - what could be worse than a candidate with no name ID running close to or ahead of an incumbent? If Larry Kissell really has no name ID and he's that close to Robin Hayes, then Hayes needs to just pack it in.

Anonymous said...

The 8th district has a majority of Democratic registered voters. Hayes has held on impressively to the seat and hopefully he'll continue to do so.

Anonymous said...

Steve Quain (aka anonymous) is an idiot. His boss pushed a poll from POS showing Hayes 16 points up days before the election.

PPP was much closer.

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