Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Party ID on Ohio Poll

We've had several folks ask about the party id breakdown on our Ohio poll, which was 55% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 15% other.

Obviously that would show incredible movement in a Democratic direction on party id. The 2006 exit poll in Ohio found a 40-37 Democratic edge, while the 2004 exit poll showed Republicans with a 40-35 advantage.

If PPP was the only company that found such a strong Democratic party id average, we would most likely have weighted for party to bring it more in line with those numbers from 2004 and 2006.

We're not the only one though. SurveyUSA, which doesn't weight for party, found a party distribution of 52% Democrats and 28% Republicans in its most recent Ohio poll. Since the party breakdown we found was pretty similar to that, we feel confident enough in it not to weight for party.

The reality, I think, is that the Republican brand is even more damaged in Ohio than it is in most states around the country.


Anonymous said...

Any hope for a late release on those VA results? :)

Tom Jensen said...

Tomorrow morning. Very similar to Rasmussen.

Anonymous said...

Tom, look this article


Obama will win a landslide victory in november.

Anonymous said...

..."In 2008, the progressive movement is taking on an unprecedented collaboration of grassroots groups to raise $100 million that will mobilize millions of new voters and engage them in effective organizations that will be around long after November 4.

We partnered with churches, labor and community-based organizations to increase Black voter turnout in 14 states with a focus on the South, including Alabama, Tennessee, Maryland and Virginia. In California and Texas, we contacted over one million Latino voters to make sure that they were educated and prepared to make their votes count.

Our coordinated Black voter drive will register and mobilize one million new Black voters through a $10 million, multi-state mobilization in states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Georgia..."

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