Tuesday, December 23, 2008

NC President by CD

The good folks at Swing State Project have tabulated the results of the Presidential race in North Carolina by Congressional district. Here's what stood out to me:

-Two districts, the 2nd and 8th, flipped from 2004. Those districts have a lot of similarities- certainly predominantly rural in terms of overall geography, but each takes in a number of heavily black precincts in one of the state's two biggest cities.

-Another pair of districts with Democratic Congressmen continued to vote Republican for President, and did not show that much movement toward Obama relative to Kerry's performance in 2004. In the 7th Obama lost by 5 relative to 12 for Kerry and in the 11th Obama lost by 5 relative to 14 for Kerry. Sometimes folks within the party grumble that Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler aren't progressive enough, but they're the kind of Democrats who can win in their districts and I certainly wouldn't trade 'em for anything.

-The district with the least movement relative to 2004 was the 10th, where Obama lost by 27 after Kerry lost by 34. That makes Daniel Johnson's performance looks all the more impressive even though he still lost by a lot, and unfortunately it also speaks to why that race is probably a nonstarter for the Democrats moving forward.

I'm going to have some more on this tomorrow.

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