Thursday, September 24, 2009

McCain approval weak, but he's still safe

John McCain is not all that popular with Arizona voters right now. 48% of them approve of the job he's doing while 42% disapprove. Nevertheless he has nothing to worry about when it comes to reelection next year.

Why is that? The reason his numbers overall are weak is that an unusually low percentage of Republicans, just 65%, approve of the job he's doing. That's lower for instance than the 72% who like Jon Kyl. But just because a quarter of GOP voters disapprove of McCain doesn't mean they'll vote for a Democrat over him. In hypothetical contests against Janet Napolitano, Gabrielle Giffords, and Rodney Glassman McCain still wins 65-68% of the vote from Republicans who disapprove of him.

And while McCain has an unusually low level of support from within his own party, he also has an unusually high level of support from Democrats. 32% of them like how he's doing his job in a climate where most Senators have approvals in the teens among voters of the other party.

So what does that all add up to? McCain leads Napolitano 53-40, Giffords 57-30, and Glassman 55-25.

Napolitano obviously is not going to run for the Senate next year but we tested her as a shoot for the moon candidate and the numbers indicate her popularity with Arizonans has declined over the last year. When PPP polled the state in August of 2008 her approval rating was 54% with 37% disapproving of her. But now there are more voters- 47%- who have an unfavorable opinion of her than there are- 44%- who say they view her favorably. Are voters mad that she didn't serve out her full second term?

Her numbers with Democrats are pretty much the same place they were a year ago but she's lost nearly all of her crossover support. Where before 32% of Republicans approved of her work as Governor, now only 16% have a favorable opinion of her. And what was a 59% approval rating with independents is now just 48% positive. Maybe joining the Obama administration made her come across as more partisan to these non-Democratic voters.

Most voters don't have an opinion about Giffords or Glassman, and that's reflected in their numbers.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Other than the Angry White Male
Constituency and their Obedient
Wives, (those which are obedient and assumably vote Republican like their husbands), exactly which Constituency does the Republican Party hope to capture in 2012?

Blacks already 99.9% in Obama's pocket, as well as 97-98% or so of all the Liberals, Democrats, and Progressives. Other than that there are the Hispanics, which I would guess will break almost exactly like they did in the last election or even slightly More for Obama (upped Minimum Wage, looking to reconcile w Cuba, etc...)

So once again, whom else will the Republicans attract other than Libertarians and other pissed off White males and their obedient wives?

Unknown said...

When Sen. McCain was voting his conscience he had respect and was seen as his own man. Now he votes with his party and comes off as a bitter old man who is being led around by his party. Sad.

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