Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Brady leads Quinn, but margin reduced

Bill Brady is still favored to become the most obscure big state Governor in the country this fall, as he leads Pat Quinn 34-30 despite 56% of Illinois voters having no opinion about him. But Quinn has reduced what was a 10 point deficit now to 4 points and is looking a little more viable for November than he was back in April.

The main thing driving this race continues to be Quinn's unpopularity. He has only a 27% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him. Brady is an unknown to a majority of voters in the state with the ones who do have an opinion splitting evenly, as 22% see him favorably and 22% unfavorably. But with Quinn's numbers what they are it really doesn't matter yet whether voters know Brady or not- they just know they want a change.

Quinn's numbers really haven't changed much at all over the course of the three Illinois polls PPP has conducted this year. The chances of his actually convincing Illinois voters they like him by November do not seem very good. But he can make voters in this strongly Democratic state think that Brady is an even worse alternative and there's a lot of room for him to make that argument with most voters not yet having formed an opinion about the GOP nominee.

Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who got 10% of the vote in 2006, is polling at 9% in this poll. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up that level of support. Rod Blagojevich's reelection was pretty much a foregone conclusion by election day last time so disaffected Democrats could safely cast a vote for Whitney without it resulting in the election of a Republican Governor. It doesn't look like that will be the case this time and Whitney could see an erosion in support if Democrats who don't like Quinn still end up voting for him because they feel the need to keep Brady from being elected.

Brady is still favored here but he is not strong enough on his own merits as a candidate for this race to turn into a blowout. It should be competitive into the fall.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Why didn't at least have one option of a head-to-head alone, then you'd be able to see if there was really any change in the race.

Ross Levin said...

Anonymous, it's because that doesn't reflect reality. Whitney WILL be on the ballot so it only makes sense to include him. Any change will incorporate him as well.

Archambeau said...

The real story here is the continued presence of a Green Party candidate at significant levels. Last time Whitney ran, his numbers could be dismissed as the results of Democrats voting in protest against Blagojevich. The fact that Whitney continues to retain his prior level of support in the absence of Blagojevich is significant, especially when one considers the Green Party's senatorial candidate, LeAlan Jones, polling 14% against big-party opponents who each must only around 30% support. If the Dems don't start looking to shore up support with the progressive wing of their party, they may face a long-term draining of support by the Greens -- enough of a factor to keep the GOP viable in a state where, demographically, they should appear weak.

Anonymous said...

Sorry but I buy not your results about Illinois.

herbs814 said...

Out of the 8 largest states in the nation, there is only state in which a Democratic candidate has any significant polling lead. What does such a candidate have to say to hold a lead in an anti-Democratic year?

"Government in New York is too big, ineffective, and expensive"
"We must get our State's fiscal house in order by immediately imposing a cap on state spending and freezing salaries of state public employees as part of a one-year emergency financial plan, committing to no increase in personal or corporate income taxes of sales taxes and imposing a local property tax cap."

If Democrats don't start talking more like Tea Party candidates and start taking Tea Party positions on fiscal issues, they will lose.

Tea Party candidates will win in 2010. What will determine victory in November is which party, Republicans or Democrats, can do a better job of embracing the Tea Party message.

Democrats, like Cuomo in NY, have to embrace the Tea Party message... or else they will almost certainly lose.

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