Thursday, June 3, 2010

More Evidence of Trouble for Dems in the Midwest

It may be the Midwest- rather than the South- that proves to be the worst region for Democrats at the polls this year. We've polled on Barack Obama's approval rating in 16 states since the beginning of March. In 6 of those his approval rating is 10 points or worse than the share of the vote he got on election day- and all but one of them is a Big Ten state.

Obama's approval in California on our last poll represented a 12 point drop from his 2008 performance. The other five ones are all Midwestern- Illinois (50% approval, 62% 2008 vote), Ohio (40% approval, 51% 2008 vote), Michigan (46% approval, 57% 2008 vote), Iowa (43% approval, 54% 2008 vote) and Wisconsin (46% approval, 56% 2008 vote.)

Some of the ramifications of Obama's flagging popularity in the region are already clear. Right now there are Democratic Governors in all 5 of these states. It is entirely possible there will be Republican Governors in all of them at this time next year- Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan show clear advantages for the GOP right now, Wisconsin's leaning that way, and Ohio's a tossup.

What may be more concerning for Democrats is what we're not seeing polling for on a systematic basis and that's the House races in these states, as well as Indiana where we haven't polled in 2010. The smattering of House polls we've seen for Democrats in the region has been bad, and that's hardly a surprise when you see how far Obama's fallen across the region. Obviously the GOP is going to have to do well everywhere to reclaim the House this fall but the Midwest may provide the greatest wealth of opportunities for gains that they need to take advantage of.


Anonymous said...

Has anyone noticed a Ras. poll with Blunt up 1 in MO? This race suddenly got interesting...


Anonymous said...

With all due respect, the first time you posted the 50 percent approval in IL I thought you had just messed up the poll. That you keep reporting it is making me question your credibility. That approval rating is garbage, and basically impossible. He could not realistically have the same rating in FL and IL.

The Dems will win the two party vote 51-48, hold the house easily and drop not more than 4, in any net, in the Senate. Anyone wants to question me or put up where their mouth is, email me. I am accepting all the free steak dinners I can win. bballers43@gmail

LALaw said...

Please see comments on Michigan - I believe not calling cell phones undercounts people 18 to 30 and overcounts those people in that group that are more likely to be conservative (those who are married with children). I would like to see a comparison of voters polled in these states, their votes for Obama v. McCain, and the states' actual votes in 2008.

Christian Liberty said...

More Democratic weakness in Big Ten country: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania will likely cost Democrats more congressional seats than any other state. Democrats will likely also lose the governor seat and the senate in PA. (Toomey now leads Sestak by 7.)

LALaw said...

Christian Liberty, you're quoting a Rasmussen poll, which are very controversial, accused of extreme Republican bias and the fact he's had 2 senate race polls called into question in the past 2 weeks - Rand Paul and Richard Blumenthal, where others independent polls showed him over 15 points off basis. He suddenly this week showed a huge correction. Everyone's calling bs on those.

Bluejoy said...

Jesus Christian you are an absolute piece of work. I am trying to decide if you are satirical or delusional. Sestak will win by 10, minimum. The Democrats will hold big margins as the Tea party is destroying what is left of Republicans. See above post.
The Pubbys are going to fall flat. No legitimate pollster, no Rasmussen is not legitimate, is calling for anything else. Read the polls. All the polls. Even Gallup is going to show a bounceback in their next poll.

Christian Liberty said...

Obama also lags behind his 2008 vote-share in NC. (Civitas)

Voters find Obama unfavorable by a margin of 45% unfavorable to 44% favorable. But among those who would definitely vote this year, Obama is even more unfavorable: 49-41.

Among the self-employed, unfavorable 48-42.
Those working for private companies, unfavorable 45-42.
Those who are retired, unfavorable 47-40.

Those not affiliated with either party, unfavorable 46-41.
Those with no opinion of Gov. Perdue find Obama unfavorable 40-34.
Those who describe their voting patterns as "independent" find Obama unfavorable 48-33.

Christian Liberty said...

Bluejoy, you mean TOOMEY will win by a minimum of 10 points.


Only dishonest, corrupt, partisan hacks could favor Sestak.

Christian Liberty said...


Gallup is clearly showing that 2010 will be the most pro-Republican year in at least 50 years. 2010 will be a pro-Republican LANDSLIDE.

ALL reputable polls are showing that this is a strong pro-Republican year, as it should be.

Christian Liberty said...


Bluejoy, give it a rest. Only delusional leftists even PRETEND not to trust Rasmussen. You are only PRETENDING because you are scared. And if you're not, you should be.


LALaw said...

Christian Liberty, I was hoping this would be a serious forum, not some place for people to scream talking points. Please go to another forum if you're purpose is to disrupt this forum.

Stephanie said...

Anyone try to correlate some of these numbers-- state-level change in Obama approval, for example, since the inauguration-- with state-level unemployment? I suspect that if the GOP does win big in the Midwest this year, or in 2012, we'll see a lot of blather about how Obama's leadership style or the new Democratic party or something doesn't match the old reliable (white) blue-collar culture of the Big Ten states, when really-- because of the secular change in manufacturing employment, and the absence of a New Economy in these places-- what we are seeing there is just the result of the economy not leveling off or rebounding the way it seems to be leveling off in, say, New England.

Anonymous said...

The first not honest with their likely voters is TOOMEY. Christian Liberty, do you know Toomey is a pro-life republican? You must find about this.

About the PPP post, that seems more a PPP wish than the reality. Fortunately other pollsters are polling better the midwest. After the big failures of PPP polls in the republican primary of Illinois and the election in PA-12. PPP must re-make the polls for this states like Rasmussen if wish become credible again.

Anonymous said...

And Minnesota? When?

mmm maybe better if PPP forget Minnesota.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty, Toomey is a pro-choice republican. Do you know?

Christian Liberty said...

Steve, Democrats are not suffering because of unemployment. Democrats are losing because they have pushed THE WRONG POLICIES in response to unemployment.

Democrats are the problem, not the economy.

Christian Liberty said...

Re: Toomey, pro-choice

"Pat is pro-life and believes that children should be welcomed into the world and protected by its laws.

While reasonable people may differ on the question of abortion rights, we should all be able to agree on policies that encourage adoption over abortion, that avoid taxpayer funding of abortions, and that allow parental involvement in decisions that involve minors. As a senator, Pat will support policies that further these important goals." (

Toomey is libertarian on abortion, but at least he does not favor subsidizing abortion with taxpayer dollars (i.e. STEALING from taxpayers and FORCING them to fund abortion) like DEMOCRATS do.

Opposition to taxpayer funding of abortion and opposition to Obamacare make Toomey a superior choice for those who value the right to life, liberty, and private property.

Toomey is a hero in the great tradition of John Locke and Thomas Jefferson. All who respect America's founding will favor Toomey.

Christian Liberty said...

Pennsylvania finds Toomey more favorable than Sestak... and finds Sestak more UNfavorable than Toomey

"Toomey was viewed favorably by 55 percent of those polled, while Sestak had a 49 percent favorability rating. Another 30 percent viewed Toomey unfavorably, but 40 percent said the same of Sestak." (Delaware County Times reporting Friday's Rasmussen Poll)

Note for those who like to PRETEND not to trust Rasmussen: Rasmussen is the same pollster that found Sestak leading by 4 immediately after the Primary. Now Sestak is losing by 7, an 11 point swing.

Christian Liberty said...

(Republican) Toomey leads by 7 in the senate race and (Republican) Corbett leads by 16 in the governor's race.

(Republican) Coats leads by 14 (47-33) in the senate race.

Big Ten country is turning GOP Red.

Christian Liberty said...

Ohio's Job Market Gets Worse

The private sector job market continues to get worse. Job growth is being seen among government jobs, at the expense of taxpayers.

Ohio is losing jobs to states in the South and West because Ohio is too pro-union.

Right to work states are seeing job growth at the expense of forced-unionization states like Ohio.

The midwest continues to struggle because it is too pro-regulatory, too pro-union, too high-taxes. The answer to Ohio's economic problems (and those of the entire midwest) is to emulate REPUBLICAN policies (cut taxes, remove burdensome regulations, and pass RIGHT TO WORK laws.)

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