Thursday, June 3, 2010

Stabenow's Standing

You can add Michigan to the list of states that it looks like will have competitive Senate races in 2012. Only 43% of voters say they would vote to reelect Debbie Stabenow while 48% say they'd prefer her Republican opponent.

Stabenow's numbers aren't real surprising in this political climate. With voters as polarized as they are right now it's hard for any politician to get cross party support and that's reflected in only 3% of Republicans saying they would vote to reelect her. And independents are turning against most all incumbent officeholders, with 42% of them saying they'd vote to replace Stabenow compared to 37% who say they would support her again.

Stabenow will probably be running in a political climate that's much more favorable to her party than the current one, and it's possible these numbers represent somewhat of a low point for her in what's shaping up to be a strong Republican year in Michigan. Nevertheless it seems likely her second bid for reelection will be more competitive than her first one if the Republicans can get a first tier challenger.

One potential Stabenow foe who would certainly be viewed as first tier is not in very good standing with Michigan voters these days. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of former Governor John Engler while 49% see him in a negative light. Democrats dislike him (77%) more strongly than Republicans like him (60%) and independents also view him negatively by a 38/50 spread. Engler clearly has lost a great deal of popularity since his resounding reelection to a third term in 1998.

It's a long way until 2012 but if Republicans recruit a good candidate this will probably be an interesting race to watch.

Full results here


Christian Liberty said...

Stabenow's union allies will be much weaker than during her last election. Favorability towards unions is at a multi-year low. Union employees are losing or will lose jobs at paces that exceed those of non-union employees, especially as the stimulus dries up. And as Chris Christie is proving, when you take on spoiled brat union thugs and side with the taxpayer, the taxpayers appreciate fiscal conservatism and resent the spoiled union thugs that seek to rob the taxpayers.

Anonymous said...

Tom are you stupid or insane?! Why did you put up the Pauls for a vote????!! Didn't you know that all the Paulites from the whole internet will come to vote for Paul?!

Brandon K said...

Why did you include Ron Paul as a choice? You know they rig every poll they could find. Come on now.

LALaw said...

Something's off with this poll - look at the full results. The voters they polled voted for Obama over McCain by only 2%. In reality, Obama beat McCain by 16.5% in Michigan so I don't know how they could be so off.

My guess is not calling cell phones - I'm 30 and haven't had a landline in 10 years nor do hardly anyone I know do. The only ones in the 30 and under age group I do know are ones that are married with children (i.e. more likely to be Republican).

Unknown said...

This 14-point difference from the '08 voting is quite intriguing.

Bluejoy said...

The flaw of IVR is self selection bias. It is not something that can be overcome.

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