Tuesday, March 25, 2008

A note on today's poll

Just a reminder of what I posted last Friday:
One other note on our next poll- we are changing our universe from folks who voted in the 2004 or 2006 primaries to folks who voted in the 2004 primary, 2006 primary, or 2006 general. That's who we called for our very accurate Democratic polls in Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio. Given that it's clear now we will have a high intensity primary in North Carolina as well it seems like the time is right to make that change here.
Some of Obama's rise from last week can probably be attributed to us calling more folks who do not have a history of voting in primaries- that seems to be a group he has done quite well with so far in this primary season.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well, could just keep changing your method untill he get 100% of the yes vote...

Anonymous said...

I was wondering how there could be that great of a difference in polls from one week to the next. Maybe next time, you could poll only those people who say they will vote for Obama.

Larry said...

It is called "settled science".

You change the thing until it gives the answers you want.

Ask NASA and the gorebal warming folks, they could explain it to you.

Could, but won't.

Anonymous said...

I don't see how working to correct a flawed model is bad. After all aren't most democratic primaries/caucuses getting record turn out. I guess that the 3 people in front of me don't like things to be accurate.

Student Guy

Anonymous said...

How do you necessarily know its a flawed model?

Anonymous said...

flawed model = Pamela Anderson with Hepatitus C

Anonymous said...

LOL, ah...

"Wait, we're not getting the answer we want - change up the poll population and try again..."

Nice.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
How do you necessarily know its a flawed model?

March 25, 2008 7:41 PM
--

Well, it's definitely not flawed ANYMORE...they are getting the results they want.

WMCB said...

Didn't like the results you were getting, so you changed your sampling method, huh? Hoping you could shape the narrative of the race in Obama's favor?

Jesus, you people are so transparent. Why do the corporate media and the corporate pollsters so insist on shoving this guy down our throats? We are not as stupid as you or he think. You did this with Bush, so we are savvy to it now.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the majority, why not just change the whole thing around completely to favor him, you dont need to hide your biased attitude, its ok.

PS- Is he paying you all for this?

Dee B. said...

:::::polling stats::::: malfunctioning

Anonymous said...

Its funny to see how many commenters have no idea how polling works and make ignorant statements.

Sample populations always are changed to try to best reflect the population expected in the actual event. Given the results of the previous primaries, and the number of new voters, it's obvious that the turnout will exceed people that voted in the 2004 and 2006 primaries.

Anonymous said...

Good God, all of these Hillary supporters, where do they come from, they're everywhere.

Even after all her crazy lies and garbage, they refuse to pull themselves up out of her kool-aid fountain and come up for air.

Jeez, so twisted.

regencyg said...

My concern is that it will be compared to last week's data without regard to the changing sample. *sigh* Great.

Anonymous said...

Oprah likes little African girls, in Africa. Carolinas not for Obama?

Anonymous said...

It's easy to capture the new information accurately. Just report both sets of numbers.

Valerie

Anonymous said...

Follow-up question, how is he doing with first-time, illegal alien voters?

Valerie

R. said...

Wow, the first 3 posters are completely clueless. The post clearly implied that the reason for the model being changed is that turnout in this primary is expected to be significantly higher than in the 2004 and 2006 primaries - which seems like a reasonable expectation given what we've seen so far this year. What do the first three posters suggest--that pollsters should stick to old models that evidence from this year's primaries increasingly shows to be based on inaccurate assumptions? Clowns.

Joshua said...

Anyone who really think Clinton has a shot at NC needs to get their head checked. One NC has a 21% black population, which the black population makes up alittle then half of the Democartic vote. Obama will win 80% or more of that vote. So that starts him off at a basic of 30% to 35%. Then you have younger voters, like myself, which makes up around 12% of the voters. In the past Obama has won them by a 60-40 margin. I don't think that will change in NC. So that give Obama another 7 or so percent. So that is 42%. He only needs 8% more to get over 50%. He from the educated white voters, which he has won in the past.

Anonymous said...

I attribute the spike to three things:

1. North Carolinians finally got around to actually listening to the Wright sermons on youtube that FauxNews cherrypicked its sensational soundbites from, and found out that the media has been happily lying to them by leaving out the context. The sermon that ended up "God D*** America" was entirely and exclusively referring to the American GOVERNMENTS throughout our history. Of course, lots of whites hate the government too, so telling them that would not have gotten them riled up, kept them tuned in/reading, and sold advertising. So truth was not on the table for that one. The "chickens coming home to roost" one about 9/11 was Wright QUOTING a white man, Embassador Peck, who had the nerve to speak about these uncomfortable truths after the attack. (Ron Paul was also demagogued down by Giuliani for saying the same thing during the GOP debates. Americans, especially Republicans, simply do not want to face some of these things yet. Al Qaida hates us because of Britney Speers' midriff. That's the whole story and I'm stickin to it.

2. Clinton's Bosnia fabrication, which she has repeated time and again, reminded them that she will do or say anything to get to the power position she needs and feels is her God-given property.

3. I think the methodological change is probably warranted. All the other primaries have shown that this is a heated year with lots of excitement. Anyone who's voted in a recent election seems like fair game.

Edith said...

Good words.

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