Barack Obama 51
John McCain 44
Barack Obama is up by seven points in Ohio, a result almost identical to a PPP poll conducted in early October that showed the Democratic nominee leading by six points in the state.
There haven't been any major shifts in the numbers since that time. Obama is doing well for the following reasons:
-A 48-36 lead with independents.
-Strong party unity. Ohio was one state where a Puma effect really did show itself over the summer. But now Obama is winning by almost the same margin with Democrats- 86-10- as McCain is with Republicans- 87-11.
-Obama is keeping it competitive with white voters. McCain only has a 49-46 lead with them, and given the state's 12% black population and their almost unanimous support for Obama, he really needs to be up at least ten with whites to take the state.
-60% of voters in the state list the economy as their top issue, and Obama has a 63-33 lead with them, giving him an 18 point lead in the grand scheme of the poll based on those respondents. McCain leads by 11 with folks who list anything else as their top issue.
-Obama leads 55-24 with folks who didn't vote in 2004.
Full results here