Monday, October 6, 2008

Obama expands NC lead

Barack Obama 50
John McCain 44
Bob Barr 2

It appears that sometime in the last week a lot of North Carolina Democrats who were undecided about Barack Obama decided he was their man.

For the first time in a PPP poll of North Carolina Obama is earning over 80% of the vote from self identified Democrats, and that's fueling a four point increase in his lead in the state compared to last week. He now has an 82-15 lead with voters in his own party. His share of the Democratic vote had been anywhere between 69 and 76% in PPP's previous five surveys of the state.

Republicans have won the Presidential race in North Carolina for decades by capturing anywhere from a fifth to a third of the Democratic vote. If John McCain does not continue that trend he will have a very difficult time winning the Tar Heel state, particularly since Obama is also up 46-40 with independents.

Obama is winning in every region of the state except the Triad, has upped his share of the white vote to 38%, and has a 60-34 lead among voters most concerned with the economy.

Full results here

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duh - read the full report... 48% of people in the poll were Dems, 35% were GOP. OF COURSE Obama will come out on top in that sample. Lousy reporting - AGAIN!

Xanthippas said...

Anonymous-

Thank you for that brilliant insight, which no pollster has ever considered before. Who knew that before your comment, all polls were wrong because pollsters failed to account for the fact that they might call more persons of one party than another?? You have saved polling as a respectable profession.

Or not: http://www.depts.ttu.edu/hs/hdfs3390/weighting.htm

Tim Weiss said...

Hey anonymous, go to this link:

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_results.asp?EC=09-06-2008

This shows you the total number of registered voters in North Carolina and shows the percent of registered voters which are Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and Unaffiliated.

And guess what? 45% of registered voters in N.C. are Democrats, and 32% are Republican... So both parties are technically OVER sampled... I'd say this poll is accurate.

Do some research you moron.

Anonymous said...

Duh Anon check the voter registration for NC: 45.37% Dems, 32.47% Reps, and 22.10% Indies. Next time know something about the freakin state before you blather your non-sense.

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