After the first round of interviews for our Ohio poll I would say it's looking more Quinnipiac than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen, when compared with last week's Ohio polls.
Also, even though she had a decent debate performance it looks like Sarah Palin's had the same drop in her favorability in Ohio compared to a survey we did soon after the GOP convention that she had in every other state.
This should be out Tuesday, and of course things are subject to change as we do callbacks over the weekend.
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11 comments:
So Obama up by 5 or 6?
You are wrong. Even with the economic troubles there is no way that Obama could be winning convincingly in Ohio. I am the consummate political expert and you are a peon. This election is McCain's to lose, racism is a much bigger factor than you think.
Jerome Armstrong
Great!
What a wonderful thing to base your optimism...racism!!!
You desreve to get your a$$e$ beat!!!
This not the jerome armstrong of MYDD. The Jerome of mydd is dumber.
Obama is up by 7%
I know you are not the REAL Jerome Armstrong so why are you going around trying to be him? Do have a personality disorder? Oh by the way, yes losing your job, your house, and not being able to buy food will make someone give up on the racism that apparently animates your world view. Such a sad person you must be.
No Jerome, I am not a peon. I make no claims to being a "political expert" I am just a political junkie who reads your blog too Jerome. I was making a guess based upon the hint that PPP gave and since he said it was closer to Quinnipiac results (and they had Obama up 8) I guessed 5 or 6.
As a former Pennsylvanian, I know what Ohio is like and I doubt it will be anything but close one way or the other. You Jerome are just pissed that your girl Hillary didn't make it.
I will peg it at +5 as well. Looking at pollster.com's composites and then comparing its composite trend lines to the individual pollster's trend lines in a particular state, it looks like Quin oversells Obama by a smidge (1 or 2 pts) and undersells McCain by a smidge (1 or 2 pts). So assuming PPP is closer to the composite trend line that would mean PPPs Ohio poll will show Obama ahead by anywhere from 4 to 6 points, playing the difference I come up with +5.
PPPs last Ohio poll (taken 9/12-14, ie right on the eve of the Lehamn Bros collapse and the beginning of the financial meltdown) had Palin's numbers as something like 42% were more likely to vote for Mccain because of her and 34% less likely to do so because of her. I'd like to see what those more likely/less likely numbers are now.
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