One of the things we're doing with our polls right now is asking folks who they voted for in 2004, so that we can get as a clear picture as possible of what voters are changing their preferences and fueling this large movement toward Obama.
This goes against the conventional wisdom a little bit but some of Obama's strongest gains in Ohio have come among small town voters. Folks in those places reported voting for Bush by a 54-35 margin but are now supporting Obama at a 48-45 clip.
Small town voters crossing over from Bush to Obama only account for 2.5% of the sample but even then it's an interesting profile to look at. 100% of them are white. 54% are independents and 38% are Republicans. Sound like an unusual Obama voter? Well 71% of this crew says the economy is its top concern, and that appears to be transcending any cultural differences.
There has also been a major swing among independent Ohioans toward Obama. In 2004 they reported going for Bush at a 51-38 rate. Now they're planning to vote for Obama 48-36, a 25 point shift since the last election.
One thing that seems to be getting lost in the shuffle right now is that young voters really were not that overwhelmingly supportive of John Kerry. The ones under 30 in this survey reported going 48-35 for the Democrat four years ago- they're now supporting Obama 64-28.
There has been movement in Obama's direction relative to John Kerry in every demographic we track.
Full results here.