There's no indication from the polling we've done in the four weeks since the election that the trend will change in 2010. In five out of six races we've looked at in Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin the likely Republican nominee continues to hold a double digit lead with independents:
| Office | Republican Margin w/Independents |
| Wisconsin Governor | Scott Walker up 43-28 vs. Tom Barrett |
| | Richard Burr up 51-30 vs. Generic Dem |
| Arkansas-2 | Tim Griffin up 49-34 vs. Vic Snyder |
| | Roy Blunt up 44-32 vs. Robin Carnahan |
| | Gilbert Baker up 47-25 vs. Blanche Lincoln |
The one exception is the Wisconsin Senate race where Russ Feingold leads with independents against all three of the Republicans we tested against him.
Of course it's always worth keeping in mind with independents that they have a structural lean toward the GOP, particularly with Republican id levels hitting new lows in some polls, because far more of them are conservatives than liberals:
| State | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative |
| | 3 | 60 | 37 |
| | 9 | 50 | 40 |
| | 11 | 49 | 41 |
| | 8 | 58 | 34 |
That said, there's no doubt it will be a brutal year for Democrats if they can't perform better with independent voters, and in the month following losses in New Jersey and Virginia there's no indication they're getting it turned around.
2 comments:
I thought the loss if independent voters wasn't the reason for Obama's losses in NJ and VA (and they are his losses since he's the titular head of the democrat party). I thought it was because his base didn't turn out.
Gallup is showing the number of GOP identifiers down by about 5 percent and independents up about the same since November 2008. Could the surge in GOP support among independents be related to the more GOP-flavored composition of Independents today?
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