It looks like Olympia Snowe could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.
There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe's job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she's doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.
Snowe is still pretty popular with the liberal/moderate wing of her party, earning a 64% approval rating from them. But even in Maine 68% of Republicans are conservatives and they give her just a 29% approval rating with a 56% majority disapproving of her.
Asked how they would vote in a primary contest between Snowe and a more conservative challenger, just 31% of likely Republican voters say they would pick Snowe while 59% say they would go for the conservative alternative.
Obviously 2012 is a long ways away. Snowe could get herself back into the good graces of the Republican electorate, or a conservative challenge could fail to materialize. But given the recent successes of the Club for Growth, at least within the sphere of GOP voters, Snowe seems a pretty likely target.
Snowe's overall popularity is still decent, with 51% of voters approving of her to 36% disapproving. That owes to a 60% approval rating with Democrats and a 51% mark with independents. Even her pretty good marks with Democrats speak to the perils of moderation though- she's down from a 70% approval rating with them three weeks ago. It may be that while her actions on health care have proven to be too much for Republicans, they're not enough for some segment of the Democratic electorate.
Ultimately Snowe's future political survival may have to come as an independent- winning either party's primary could be a challenge. And the good news for her is that Maine has been unusually hospitable toward independent candidates, so it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
Full results here