For the most part this year our polling has found that there aren't a lot of Obama voters straying when it comes to the 2010 races. At the same time most of our polling hasn't been of likely voters, and the generic Congressional ballot polling we did of the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial electorates last week has some red flags for Democrats in it.
In Virginia 74% of Obama voters say they'll choose a Democrat for Congress next year to 13% expressing an intent to vote Republican. In New Jersey the numbers are very similar with 74% of Obama voters planning to go Democrats to 11% planning to vote Republican.
McCain voters are extremely unified. In Virginia they plan to vote Republican by an 86-3 margin. In New Jersey they plan to do so by an 88-3 margin.
These numbers are pretty bad news for Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and John Adler. They have two big issues they're going to have to deal with next year:
-A drop off in Democratic turnout from 2008
-Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 going Republican in 2010 to create more balance in Washington.
Mind you, I don't think there is a huge group of voters that will do the latter, but none of these three guys had much margin for error. They're going to have to run exceptional campaigns, which is within their own hands, and hope that they get somewhat duddy opponents, which they have less control over.
I'll have some more on independents who voted for Obama in the next couple days.