We'll release the second part of our Arkansas-2 poll tomorrow but here's the key finding: while 78% of Democrats in the district approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, 75% like Vic Snyder, and 61% like Mark Pryor only 43% express support for Blanche Lincoln.
That's some pretty serious confirmation she has a base problem. We found that 30% of Democrats in the district think she's too conservative.
So just start moving more to the left and being more supportive of the President and all will be fine, right? Not really because 49% of independents in the district think she's too liberal (as do 76% of Republicans but those votes are gone already.)
I'm really not sure what Lincoln should do but I certainly don't envy her position. She's stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Now it should be noted that despite Lincoln's 43% approval with Democrats she still pulled 71% of the vote in her party versus the Republicans we tested her against on this poll. But that's where I start to worry about the Creigh Deeds effect- if the base has so little enthusiasm for the top of the ticket is it even going to bother turning out next year? Her lack of popularity could be bad news for the rest of the Democratic delegation. Mike Beebe is incredibly well liked but also not likely to have a very competitive race so I'm not sure how much of a turnout driver that will be. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. We'll have the full Lincoln numbers tomorrow.