There's no beating around the bush about it- our poll in NY-23 was way off the mark. I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make the same ones twice. Obviously the bizarre machinations in the race last weekend made it extremely volatile and if we ever a poll a race this strange again we will make better decisions (or maybe make the most prudent decision to just sit such a contest out!) But I apologize for putting bad information out there, it is very embarrassing.
Beyond that though I'm pretty proud of how we did tonight. There was a lot of skepticism about our New Jersey and Maine numbers and we did really well in both places. I'm not going to lie, it feels very good to beat most of the New Jersey pollsters in New Jersey, especially since it was our first time polling the state. We did a good job of chronicling the end of Corzine's gain in momentum in mid-October and the shift back toward Christie over the last couple weeks.
In Maine I think our accuracy is an indicator that IVR is superior to live interviewers when polling on sensitive issues about sexuality and probably race. I've argued that since we put out our first poll there.
In Virginia we were pretty good, I'm very proud of the sum total of our polling there over the last two years. We were also very good in Chapel Hill, correctly predicting a one point race and that the Council race would be pretty bunched up but with the incumbents winning. In Charlotte we were within the margin of error on our final prediction but underestimated the strength of Anthony Foxx's turnout operation and ability to get Obama wave voters back out- hats off to them.
I will note that with the exception of Virginia all of our 'error' overestimated the prospects of Republican candidates, which should just go to show that much more that our polling is above board and non biased, not that I expect that to stop Republican whining when they don't like our numbers.
Thank you to everyone who's followed our 2009 election cycle polling.