Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Missouri Preview

The Missouri Senate race, where we'll release numbers tomorrow, is a great prism into the current political climate.

44% of independents in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Roy Blunt to just 23% viewing him favorably. Robin Carnahan also has poor, but somewhat better, numbers with that group- 40% have an unfavorable opinion of her with 33% holding a positive take.

The fact that both candidates are unpopular with independents is a clue to the enmity voters are feeling toward politicians of all stripes right now, but with Carnahan's net favorability with independents coming out at -7 to Blunt's -21 you would expect her to have a solid race in the horse race with that group, right?

Wrong. Blunt leads 44-32 with independents even though only 23% like him. His vote share nearly doubles his favorability!

This is another example of something I wrote about last weekend- voters who dislike both parties or in this case both politicians are leaning toward the party out of power because they at least see it as an alternative to the status quo. A big part of the Democratic message next year is going to have to be reminding voters why they hated the Republicans being in power so much and convincing them the alternative is worse.

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