Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The Romney Conundrum

Yesterday I wrote about how Mitt Romney's overall favorability numbers with Republicans were crashing.

Let's look at a more specific swath of the GOP electorate though- those voters who think that the party's too conservative. It's not a huge group but it's the one most likely to cross over and vote for Obama in 2012 and thus Republicans really need to hold onto them if they want to win the next Presidential election.

Sarah Palin is not the answer with those folks. 43% of them have a positive opinion of her but 37% view her negatively for a +6 net favorability rating.

Mike Huckabee comes out better with 44% viewing him favorably and 16% having an unfavorable take, for a +28 net ratio.

And the most popular with this group? None other than Mitt Romney at a 51/16 favorability spread for a net +35.

So the guy the Republican rank and file likes the least is the one that the weakest group of Republican voters like the most. Those are the sorts of internal disparities the GOP is going to have to work out if it wants to win the next time around.


Anonymous said...

Very interesting. I think that leaves Huckabee in a pretty good position -- at least for now -- based on your numbers. He is down seven points from Romney with this group (but still pretty good at +28) and with the rank and file he is pretty much up there with Palin -- or not far behind.

Jed M. Merrill said...

Romney is a Conservative who used to be an Independent, and can therefore speak to Independents while representing Conservatives both ideologically and in values.

Romney IS our strongest candidate for 2012. Huckabee has matured, and Palin is doing well now that her book has launched, but it is Romney who actually has what it takes to turn things around, and will pull votes even from among Democrats.

There are a lot of people still fighting Romney over his religion, or perhaps their misunderstanding of it. There is no good reason for this. To these people I would like to point out that Jesus was once approached by one of his disciples who had found a man preaching in Jesus' name who they did not know. Did Jesus say to rebuke or fight against him? No. He said to let him be.

Also, Mormons claim to have MORE of the words of Christ, beyond just the Bible, which they certainly embrace. Does that make them LESS Christian?

Romney is NOT running to preach. (For that matter he has not even announced that he is running!) Romney is running to govern and to serve. Romney has been clear that he will govern as a conservative. In Massachusetts, the people demanded more liberal government, and even in that capacity he WOULD NOT sign pro-abortion legislation or support homosexual marriage.

If you are concerned about freedoms of religion, conservative Christians have no better ally than Mormons, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who worship God according to the dictates of their own conscience and allow ALL men the right to worship how, when or what they may.


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