Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Wisconsin Notes

-It's a good thing for Democrats that Jim Doyle decided not to run for reelection. His approval rating is now down to 29% with 57% of voters in the state disapproving of him. When PPP looked at Doyle's standing in June his approval was 34%. As the New Jersey Governor's election showed, no matter how Democratic your state is you simply can't get reelected with these kinds of numbers. 58% of Democrats approve of Doyle, a poor standing compared to Russ Feingold's 78% and Herb Kohl's 73% within the party. But where his numbers really stand out as poor are with independents (22% approval) and Republicans (5% approval).

-Kohl's approval rating is 45%, just as Feingold's was. Normally those numbers wouldn't be considered too great but in a time when voters are disgusted with all politicians and not too enamored with Democrats in particular that's not a bad showing- better than for most Senators we've polled on lately.

-You know it's shaping up to be a good year for the GOP when it holds the lead on the generic Congressional ballot in Wisconsin. 43% of voters in the state say they plan to vote Republican for Congress next year with 41% going for the Democrats. The key to the Republican lead is a 39-24 advantage with independents, mirroring the trend we're finding in almost every state.

Voters in Wisconsin have a pretty dim view of both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress. 36% have a favorable opinion of the Dems to 50% unfavorable. For the GOP it's 30% favorable and 51% unfavorable. The reason Republicans lead on the generic ballot despite being less popular than the Democrats is that they have a 63-12 edge with voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans- a group that accounts for 14% of the electorate. When you're unhappy with everyone you'll tend to vote for the party out of power.

Full results here


Brandon K said...

So, Republicans lead by 2 in Wisconsin, but trail nationally by 8? Sorry Tom, those numbers don't mesh. One of them is wrong, and methinks it's the national one.

Tom Jensen said...

They're completely different measures. Our state polls are geared toward the 2010 electorate, the national polls are all adults (just like pretty much everyone's at this point except Rasmussen.)

Brandon K said...

Adults? I thought they were at least registered voter polls? What is the usefulness of an adult generic ballot poll?

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