Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Undecideds in NC

There aren't a whole lot of true undecided voters in North Carolina. 89% already have some idea which party they're going to vote for the legislature next year and 88% have a preference for Congress. In an off year election you have mostly hardcore partisan voters coming out rather than the 'swing voters' who are more likely to switch from supporting one party to another on a year to year basis. Thus the 2010 election is more likely to be decided by the party that does a better job of getting its folks out to the polls than by winning over the 'undecideds.'

With that small swath of the electorate that is persuadable though it's clear that the economy and jobs is going to be the key. 56% of those voters name that as their top issue, compared to 48% of the population as a whole. These folks are not that interested in education or health care or taxes, all of which poll lower with them than voters overall.

These folks don't really care what the economists tell them about whether things are getting better. They need to feel it in their every day lives. If they do feel that things are better, they're going to vote Democratic next fall and things like health care and Mike Easley's legal issues and Bev Perdue's unpopularity aren't going to matter. And if they don't think things are getting better they're going to vote Republican because it affords an opportunity for change, just as they went Democratic for the same reason in 2006 and 2008.

With undecided voters next year it's going to be all about the economy.

No comments:

Web Statistics