On our monthly 2012 polls, which began in April, an average of 74% of Republicans have held a favorable opinion of Palin to 66% for Huckabee and 56% for Romney.
The gap hasn't always been that wide though. On the first three iterations of this survey, from April to June, Palin averaged a 76% favorability number to 67% for Huckabee and 63% for Romney. On the last three runs, from September to November, Palin has averaged 72% to 64% for Huckabee and just 51% for Romney.
Romney polled in the 60s on the first three polls but has not reached that threshold since and now for the first time he's below 50% with the party base. I don't have any theories to explain Romney's popularity slide with Republican voters but it certainly bodes ominous for his 2012 nomination prospects if he can't get it turned around.
Here's the full data:
| | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| April | 67 | 76 | 60 |
| May | 64 | 76 | 67 |
| June | 70 | 75 | 63 |
| July | 66 | 76 | 54 |
| August | 66 | 72 | 52 |
| September | 70 | 69 | 50 |
| October | 56 | 72 | 54 |
| November | 65 | 75 | 48 |
3 comments:
Romneycare! That is your reason for the dropoff. The higher the profile of the healthcare debate, the lower Romney's numbers go.
Tom,
Did you stop by Ft. Bragg to get your book signed?
I think the explanation may be, in part, that Romney is losing some of his support to Palin, because FOX is pushing her all the time -- especially since her book it is almost 24/7. In 2008, Fox pundits and talk radio all pushed Romney -- and desecreted Huckabee. This time round, Huck has his own weekend #1 shoe (he turns in an aggregate of 3.5 to 3.8 viewers every weekend), so he can define and push himself. And he makes weekly visits to Neil Cavulto, Fox & Friends, Geraldo, and sometimes Greta, occasionally Hannity. The other extremists pundits just ignore him, but they don't descrecate him anymore.
But Romney has no one speaking for him.
Frankly, I think this Palin path is disasterous and Fox is either irresponsible or totally ignorant. I am a Huckabee supporter but Romney would clearly be my second choice.
So, they have a popular figure among republicans (but not independents) who is "unelectable"; and a potential candidate growing more unpopular by the day. In the end it will be Huckabee, whose popularity is still very good among Republicans, great among conservatives, very decent among independents.
Republians don't elect dark horses on the first shot.
Post a Comment