Monday, April 12, 2010

The Hawaii Special

If Republican Charles Djou wins the special election in Hawaii next month it will be a clear sign that...the state has a quirky system for filling House vacancies.

A DCCC poll leaked out last week on the race that showed Democratic candidates getting 59% of the vote and the Republican getting 32%. Neil Abercrombie got reelected with 71% of the vote in 2008 so the share of the vote the Democrats are combining for really doesn't seem like an unusually large drop given the open seat situation and the fact that native Barack Obama won't be on the top of the ballot for this one.

Djou certainly might win. And then he will lose in November when he has to run against a Democrat one on one. I'm sure it's going to be made out as some sort of Democratic apocalypse if Republicans manage to win this special election and while that was appropriate in Massachusetts I don't think it is here. The broader implications of this race are pretty limited, and restraint is in order for interpreting the results.

7 comments:

Christian Liberty said...

Just swap NY-23 for HI-1. Democrats only squeaked out a bare plurality in NY-23 because Republicans' choice of a left-wing socialist labor-union ally divided the base.

The questions remain whether Democrats in HI-1 can unite behind one candidate in November... if the losing candidate in the primary will support the nominee or run on another ballot line... or if independents approve of and support a common-sense moderate Republican who served his country, rather than a rubber stamp for the same disastrous far-left agenda.

wt said...

I would definitely not write off Djou in the general election this November. His background and personal narrative are his bread and butter. Those things, along with an incumbent advantage, could help keep him in office.

Hawaiian Perspective said...

I am from Hawaii and think that Djou could do well in November against Case or Hanabusa. Supporters for Case and Hanabusa hate each other and may not vote for the other against Djou. Many of Case's voters are independents who are more aligned with Djou than Hanabusa, so between Hanabusa against Djou, Djou will likely win. It would be much closer if Case and Djou square off, esp if Hanabusa's supporters stay home. Either way, djou could win and keep the seat in November.

The people in Hawaii are tired of the tax and spend policies of the old boys network and want real change.

Anonymous said...

Real Change? Change back to what we gad for the last 14 years?

Christian Liberty said...

@Anonymous

Real change means repealing the left-wing agenda that was pushed upon us for 40 years by a Democratic Congress (1954-1994). Real Change means repealing the left-wing agenda that has dominated politics for the last 100 years (Wilson, FDR, LBJ, Obama; income taxes, death taxes, Federal Reserve, excessive regulation of business).

12 years of Republicans in Congress is NOT ENOUGH. 8 years of a Republican president is NOT ENOUGH. America needs a century of pro-capitalist reform to undo the damage from this past century of pro-socialist reform.

American politics since the days of Wilson and Roosevelt have been too socialist. It would require at least a generation or two of pro-capitalist conservatives to return America to what it was meant to be.

Anonymous said...

Republicans had an iron grip on Congress for 12 years and could have done whatever they wanted and in many cases passed deregulation that nearly plunged the country into the Ocean. Going back to that is not change.

col jd said...

jd says when will you ever learn independents started your country and politicians have weasled in and taken it over politicians are the cause of the problems america is having and you just keep thinking politicians can slove them its not going to happen no matter which ones you keep electing independents are not politicians look in your dictionary dont trust the brainwashing the political partys keep feeding you eventually they will destruct you then what do you do for leaders its to late after the destruction is complete get off this political drugs and get your minds cleaned out and vote in some americans who love the country and not thierselves and thier party politics

 
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