If Republican Charles Djou wins the special election in Hawaii next month it will be a clear sign that...the state has a quirky system for filling House vacancies.
A DCCC poll leaked out last week on the race that showed Democratic candidates getting 59% of the vote and the Republican getting 32%. Neil Abercrombie got reelected with 71% of the vote in 2008 so the share of the vote the Democrats are combining for really doesn't seem like an unusually large drop given the open seat situation and the fact that native Barack Obama won't be on the top of the ballot for this one.
Djou certainly might win. And then he will lose in November when he has to run against a Democrat one on one. I'm sure it's going to be made out as some sort of Democratic apocalypse if Republicans manage to win this special election and while that was appropriate in Massachusetts I don't think it is here. The broader implications of this race are pretty limited, and restraint is in order for interpreting the results.