Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Campaign Songs

The last time a Democratic President was elected for the first time the campaign's song was Fleetwood Mac's 'Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow.'

In what I hope was an omen I heard a different Fleetwod Mac song this morning on the radio driving in: 'Landslide.'

Barack Obama led in 14 out of 16 of our final battleground polls. In eight of those states- Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- the lead was solid enough that I'm very comfortable he'll win. Those are also the states that pollster.com is very confident he will win, giving him a minimum of 291 electoral votes.

In six of the states we have Obama leading that advantage is only one or two points. If he really does win all those places he'll be at 378 electoral votes. The odds of that aren't necessarily great and obviously all those numbers were well within the margin of the error but it could happen.

And who knows...Georgia looked pretty close in our poll and Obama had a lead banked there. If he took that and North Dakota to get 396 electoral votes it would be a surprise but in this bizarre, long election cycle it probably wouldn't be the year's biggest surprise.

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