Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Matthews/Specter: an early look

Arlen Specter 40
Chris Matthews 27

A look at a potential 2010 match up for US Senate between MSNBC host Chris Matthews and long time Republican incumbent Arlen Specter brings good news for both candidates.

The good news for Specter:

-He's winning. It's always better to be winning than losing.

-30% of Democrats say they would support him in such a contest.

-Matthews lead him only 31-25 among black voters.

The good news for Matthews:

-People are at least open to the possibility of voting for him, hence Specter's standing well below 50%, usually not good news for an incumbent.

-There's an indication that his celebrity could help bring him some crossover support. Specter is carrying only 50% of the Republican vote (that could also be people who would like to see him taken out in the primary sitting on their hands.)

-Matthews has a double digit lead with voters under 30. His candidacy could result in young, Democratic leaning voters being more engaged in a midterm election than they usually are.

The bottom line?

Specter would certainly start out favored, but a Matthews candidacy is by no means a non starter. He would have a fighting chance with a strong campaign.

Full results here.
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