I remember some pundit a couple months ago, maybe right after the GOP convention, saying that Barack Obama had failed in his goal of expanding the map.
Let's review:
-Up 1 in Montana
-Up 1 in North Carolina
-Up 1 in Indiana
-Up 1 in Missouri
-Up 4 in Nevada
-Up 6 in Virginia
-Up 10 in Colorado
-Up 17 in New Mexico
-Only down 2 in Georgia
Does that remind you of any Democratic map you've ever seen?
Would you have thought it possible four years ago at this time? Would you even have necessarily thought it possible four months ago at this time?
The map is so freaking expanded there's a fair chance it will blow up into a landslide tomorrow.
Either way tomorrow's going to be one of the finest days in the history of our country, and we're happy to have had the opportunity to chronicle all of it by the numbers for you over the last year-
Tom
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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
Wall Street Journal Swing State Polls Chart
The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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Questions or Comments?
23 comments:
Considering the incredible convergence among National polls, and the good weather tomorrow in most states, I'd expect the Obama GOTV team to overcome any potential Bradley or hidden voter effects and Obama to take between 338-379 EV's depending on McCain turn out.
The problem for McCain is they have no real ground game. It's a phone war, and by today, people aren't much dealing with phones anymore.
Meanwhile Obama gets 1M door knocks in Ohio, before 5pm's 3rd shift.... That's just Ohio.
I think we take everything that's within 3% as of today.
Thanks for the polls; they show the value of Obama's strategy and ground game, only instead of eeking out a narrow victory, they'll eek out a total landslide.
Thanks so much for your and the rest of PPP's hard work. Very much appreciated.
Thanks Tom.
You guys nervous about how your predictions hold up tomorrow?
Thanks Tom for the polls and the transparency. It's a breath of fresh air.
I tip my hat to PPP. You folks have done some damn good polling this year. I especially wish to thank you for the extensive cross tabs you made available, even if beforehand we had to deceipher one of Tom's teases about what the topline poll numbers would be. Good work.
Thanks, Tom. This is great stuff.
So come on: What do you and the other folks at PPP predict?
Thank You. You guys did a great job in the primaries and I am sure you will in the general as well. Its good to have polsters who even though they have a rooting interest still don't bias the polls (and you are on the side of The Good Guys, Yeah!) And your posts and little hints make it fun
Tom thanks to you and your crew for all your work, especially in release these last states into the wee hours last night...
Just wanted to write a quick thank you for what you have done. I will be watching the election from Canada with bated breath.
Thank you so much for your transparency and large sample sizes lol
I am so jazzed up, so ready to go tomorrow. Trust me when I say I am going to be the first one in line tomorrow to cast a vote for our next President!
Thank you Tom and PPP! You're one more reason I'm proud to be a Tarheel tonight.
Let me add my thanks to PPP. Absolutely incredible job. I particularly love the casual atmosphere here and your openness.
It's a breath of fresh air and other pollsters can learn a thing or two from you.
THANK YOU!
Irrespective of how your polls will stand up tomorrow night you will be remembered for giving all of us a highly transparent and interactive polling experience..Thanks a lot :)
Been wondering what you all think about the Bradley effect. I think it might have been valid during primary, but don't think it exists in race between Obama and McCain. Easy for people to say "I am for the vet" or "I am hawkish"...was harder for people to define why supporting Hillary over Obama. Wish you could poll this issue
As Bob Shrum said to Sen. John Kerry, "Let me be the first to call you 'Mr. President.'"
Put another way, it's probably best to take the victory lap after Obama's probable victory tomorrow.
thank you for it all
Franco
Thanks Tom. The quality of your polls, as well as your openness and transparency, are a breath of fresh air.
Might you consider doing a national tracking poll next time around?
Fingers crossed for good news tomorrow night.
Indeed the work that you do and have done over the past months is very very much appreciated. I trust and hope you will find your reward on this side of heaven, you deserve it..
"Does that remind you of any Democratic map you've ever seen?"
FDR in 1936. :)
Tom, time to nail your colors to the mast. Let's have your prediction for what the electoral college score will be.
I'm going for Obama 338 McCain 200
For Obama that means the Kerry states plus (in order of winning margin) Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Florida and Ohio.
Early voting will be the reason Obama wins Florida and Ohio. I think Obama will just miss out in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Montana.
Forget the +1 states. They'll go to McCain. No.Doubt. About. It. Once the "hard working white people" actually vote, we all know which way they're gonna go. Even Virginia at +4 is shaky.
The majority of white people vote for the Republiklan candidate for POTUS, no matter what. No reason to expect anything different this time, especially with a African-American named Barack Hussein Obama as the Democratic candidate.
Still, props to PPP for all the great work you have done over the past year. Hopefully your projections for the presidential election will be borne out and that PPP will be granted the respect it deserves.
Thank you for all your great work in this election cycle. You folks have been very informative, insightful and even entertaining. I just hope your final polls prove to be quite accurate! ;-)
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