Monday, November 3, 2008

North Carolina State Offices


Bev Perdue 49
Pat McCrory 48
Michael Munger 2

The race for Governor in North Carolina is about as close as it could be. Neither candidate has had a lead of more than four points in the last two months of PPP's polling.

Undecided whites seem to be moving toward McCrory, undecided blacks seem to be moving toward Perdue. Last week McCrory had a 54-37 advantage with white voters, now it's 59-37. Perdue's lead with African Americans is up to 90-9 after it was 83-9 last week.

Perdue is dominating in eastern North Carolina, McCrory is dominating in Charlotte, and the candidates are very evenly matched in the rest of the state. This race appears to be close enough that there may not be a clear winner Tuesday night.

Lieutenant Governor:

Walter Dalton (D) 49
Robert Pittenger (R) 41
Phil Rhodes (L) 7

Although it is not clear that Bev Perdue will be moving up to the Governor's Mansion, it does seem evident that her party will keep her current office.

Insurance Commissioner:

Wayne Goodwin (D) 47
John Odom (R) 41
Mark McMains (L) 6

The Democrats look likely to keep this open seat as well.


Beth Wood (D) 48
Leslie Merritt (R) 46

This will probably be the closest statewide down ballot race on election night.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Steve Troxler (R) 51
Ronnie Ansley (D) 43

Labor Commissioner:

Cherie Berry (R) 51
Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44

There may be at least a couple bright spots for the Republican Tuesday night.

Full results here


Unknown said...

So what's next? It's not 4 AM yet. ;)

Anonymous said...


I know drawing conclusions based on a single day sample can be unreliable but can you tell us whether or not you saw any trends toward Obama in the Sunday samples of the states you polled over the weekend.? Based on some of the national trackers like dailykos, hotline, and Tipp, it seems like Obama may have had a bit of a down day Saturday, but a good day on Sunday based some of the brand new national polls.

Ephemeros said...

I have an interesting theory I suggested to a few friends today, who thought I was crazy. Here goes. I think McCrory will eke out a slim victory because of Obama. His last minute campaign swing through McCrory territory will drive voter turnout and might push a few more suburban, outer belt moderates to Obama but will split their ticket for a local pol, McCrory. Am I crazy or does that make sense?

Anonymous said...

Tom, what do you make of the early vote numbers in your sample? If 63% of the people who are going to vote have already voted, that means turnout will be dramatically lower than predicted/assumed.

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