Monday, November 3, 2008

Indiana Results

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 48

Buoyed by a strong 54-37 edge with independent voters, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.

Like in many states Obama is going into election day with a strong advantage. A little under a quarter of likely voters have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is up 52-44 with those planning to vote on election day.

Obama is keeping McCain's lead with white voters in the state in single digits, a necessity given its small black population. McCain is up 53-44 with white voters and Obama probably needs to keep him there in order to pull the upset.

Obama's success is also contingent on strong support from voters under 30, with whom he has a 56-39 lead. He needs them to turn out if he's going to take the state.

Full results here.


Valdivia said...

great Tom thanks so much is Nevada next?

Sreenu said...

Wonder what the decimal point numbers were for IN (and also for GA & OH)

Anonymous said...

So, essentially all of the states you polled are tied.


What do you make of their divergence from the trending National polling?

Unknown said...

Tied in Indiana 1 day before the election is unbelievable. This state is never close. If it goes to Obama, he will clear 400 EV's easy.

I've always said 1980 was the model for this election.

Anonymous said...

Nevada please!

Anonymous said...

S, my math says that for Obama to win 400+ he needs to turn both Georgia and Arizona blue. Not to say this won't happen, of course, his GOTV might push him over the top. OH, FL, NC, MO, IN, ND and MT will get him up to 381,

It's a shame that North Dakota has been so underpolled this election cycle. Too many pollsters polling reasonably safe states like New Hampshire and Iowa for the trillionth time rather than recognising the new map the Obama campaign has drawn up.

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