Sunday, November 2, 2008

Pennsylvania Results

Barack Obama 53
John McCain 45

Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.

Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.

Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.

Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.

In Pennsylvania down ballot races Republican Tom Corbett leads 52-35 for Attorney General, holding Democratic challenger John Morganelli to 59% even among voters within his own party. For Treasurer Democrat Rob McCord leads 46-38 and for Auditor General Democrat Jack Wagner leads 49-35.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

We'll take it.

Jeremy said...


Anonymous said...

decent...keep 'em coming. Are any more coming out tonight?

Anonymous said...

my prediction was right on the money :)

Anonymous said...

I will take it :)
What is next?

Chuck said...

Comfortably over 50%... thus any stealing will have to be huge in order to justify a surprise on Tues. night.

drew said...

Looks good.

jr1886 said...

PA looking good... I'd like to see an Obama + 4 in North Carolina. here hoping

KMartDad said...

Thanks for the numbers.

Something I don't understand, and I've seen it in a number of polls. If Obama is winning at least as many Rs as he's losing Ds to Mac, and if he is winning so decisively among Indies (by 18 pts in this poll), how can his overall lead be this narrow (7 pts)--not that I'm complaining. I think this looks pretty reasonable.

Anonymous said...

PPP's #s combined with the final Gallup #s today are giving me a little bit of relief from the incredible tension I've been feeling.
As long as there's no major shenanigans, I'm feeling more confident of a BO victory. Otherwise, I may have to revisit some of Bill Maher's "Exit Strategy" locations! lol

Anonymous said...

I hope your PA poll is better than your PA poll in the primary.

That was an epic fail. You had Obama winning by +3.

I think the mason dixon numbers with Obama +4 with the large white undecideds feels more right.

This state was never in the double digits for Obama.

Anonymous said...


There aren't many independents in Pennsylvania. Only 7% in this sample.

Among just Democrats/Republicans, Obama takes a 7.5% lead from the large Democratic party advantage in PA (keep in mind that this poll has the split at 51-42, when its officially 51-37.) Because there aren't many independents, he only adds 1.2% to his margin among them.

KMartDad said...

I see. Thanks for the explanation.

Anonymous said...

Looks good.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous said...

I hope your PA poll is better than your PA poll in the primary.

Well either PPP, Survey USA, Rasmussen and the Morning Call tracking poll are right(read: the consensus)... OR Mason-Dixon is right. We will know in less than 48 hours.

Andrew H said...

Biden going to be with some Phillies player tomorow night. I hope that doesn't backfire on us. If we have good margin in SE PA, then there's nothing to sweat in PA for us.

Unknown said...

I was curious, according to the PA registrations statistics you underrepresent Independents and overrepresent Republicans by 5% in addition underrepresenting 18-29 year olds by 3% and overrepresenting over 65 year olds by 2%|

Any comments...

Anonymous said...

I live in PA, spent 30+ years working in Phila and now have returned to western Pennsylvania. There are a couple things you should know about this state. First, Dems here in the western part of the state tend to be socially conservative/ traditional and fiscally liberal. That is why Bob Casey, Jason Altmire and Jack Wagner win overwhelmingly here. The second thing is these Dems have been voting Republican for awhile now but they don't change their registration to reflect that.

In the eastern part of the state, especially the SE, the situation is reversed. There are many registered socially liberal and fiscally responsible Republicans in the Phila collar counties who have been voting increasingly Democratic. I suspect more have changed their registrations to Dem than in the west, but there are still plenty who have not. That, to me, accounts for the offsetting numbers of Rs for Obama and Ds for McCain.

Second, if Obama gets 53% of the vote, that is a big win in PA. Rendell had a blowout in 2006 and he got 59%. IIRC, Bob Barr is on the ballot here and he could well siphon votes in central and northern PA away from McCain.

Last, Rendell has an excellent GOTV operation in the SE and Phila is still a pretty good Dem machine city. Look for an Obama margin approaching 450-500k out of Phila.

And about the SUSA and Rasmussen polls. The SUSA poll had 16% of AA vote going to McCain. I understand Rasmussen had a similar result. M-D
while close, is a 2 pt improvement for Obama.

Anonymous said...

Let me just add about the "Bradley effect" thing. AA politicians have run statewide; it's not something new and strange. In 2006 Lynn Swann ran for governor and lost because he was a bad candidate with no ideas and up against the best pol in the state not because of his race. 40% of Pennsylvanians had no trouble voting for him. Dwayne Woodruff (former Steeler DB), who ran for judge, was the highest vote getter of all the judicial candidates. Dwight Evans ran for governor about 15 or so years ago in a crowed Dem primary and shocked observers by nearly becoming the nominee. And, of course in Phila, Pgh and Harrisburg, AA policitians are old news.

Anonymous said...

We are no longer a Republic.

We are now a Mobocracy.

When the dollar is worthless it won't matter if you can withdraw it from your bank or not.

Anonymous said...

runescape money runescape gold runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape itemsrunescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money Tabula Rasa Credit Tabula Rasa Credits Hellgate gold Hellgate London gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling eve isk eve online isk eve isk eve online isk tibia gold Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold
Age of Conan Gold
buy Age of Conan Gold
aoc gold

china tour
beijing tour
beijing travel
china tour
tibet tour
tibet travel
computer monitoring software
employee monitoring

Anonymous said...

wholesale crystal jewelry
wholesale turquoise jewelry
wholesale coral jewelry
wholesale shell jewelry
wholesale semi-precious jewelry
wholesale Swarovski crystal

wholesale jewelry
costume jewelry
handmade jewelry
fashion jewelry
pearl jewelry
crystal jewelry
semiprecious jewelry
turquoise jewelry
coral jewelry
shell jewelry
swarovski crystal jewelry

Anonymous said...

看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,廣告,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,燒肉,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照

Anonymous said...

Do want to know the magic of online games, and here you can get more Metin2 gold. Do you want to have a try? Come on and Metin2 yang can make you happy.You can change a lot Cheap metin2 yang for play games. And you will enjoy yourself at the sametime. Playing online games can make much Cheap metin2 gold. Come and have a try. You will feel a different feeling. And you can Buy metin2 gold do what you want to do in the online game.

Web Statistics