Thursday, January 15, 2009

Breaking Down the Blunts

Our Missouri poll this week found that Roy Blunt received a net negative favorability rating from voters in the state.

The biggest reason is his unusual level of enmity from independent voters. 33% of them see Robin Carnahan unfavorably, 32% have a dim view of Jim Talent, and 18% dislike Sarah Steelman. A much greater number, 42%, have a negative opinion of Blunt.

There's one obvious reason for this. After years spent in the Republican House leadership, Blunt has a reputation as a partisan warrior that might not appeal to voters who don't identify with either party.

He may have another liability with those independent voters though- his son. Overall 50% of voters in the state we surveyed say they think Jay Nixon will make a better Governor than Matt Blunt. But among the independents who have a negative view of Roy Blunt that gap is much wider, with 74% thinking Nixon will be better while just 10% choose the younger Blunt.

Matt Blunt didn't leave office with much popularity, and that may prove to be an issue Roy Blunt has to deal with if he jumps into the field.

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