Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Lincoln's Tough Position

We'll release the second part of our Arkansas-2 poll tomorrow but here's the key finding: while 78% of Democrats in the district approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, 75% like Vic Snyder, and 61% like Mark Pryor only 43% express support for Blanche Lincoln.

That's some pretty serious confirmation she has a base problem. We found that 30% of Democrats in the district think she's too conservative.

So just start moving more to the left and being more supportive of the President and all will be fine, right? Not really because 49% of independents in the district think she's too liberal (as do 76% of Republicans but those votes are gone already.)

I'm really not sure what Lincoln should do but I certainly don't envy her position. She's stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Now it should be noted that despite Lincoln's 43% approval with Democrats she still pulled 71% of the vote in her party versus the Republicans we tested her against on this poll. But that's where I start to worry about the Creigh Deeds effect- if the base has so little enthusiasm for the top of the ticket is it even going to bother turning out next year? Her lack of popularity could be bad news for the rest of the Democratic delegation. Mike Beebe is incredibly well liked but also not likely to have a very competitive race so I'm not sure how much of a turnout driver that will be. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. We'll have the full Lincoln numbers tomorrow.


Eureka Springs, AR said...

Plantation Blanche is by and large following her heart, her convictions, protecting her fellow rich.

The only "liberal" bone in her body seems to be with women's right to choose. WHy that's called liberal instead of sane is beyond me.

However, all other interests are dedicated to protecting the very rich. Note her introduction of abolition of the estate tax earlier this year. Something she rarely if ever does (introduce a bill).

Three big problems, imo. First of all there is no challenger from the center or left of her. Second, her mid term election will likely draw only upper middle and rich folk to the polls. I do suspect most of the rest will stay home. Finally, AR Media is absolutely awful in every respect. People have no facts, no substance, no balance in reporting.. if it's covered at all.

AR Vets Coalition said...

IN Arkansas the overall dissatisfaction is directed not at party but individual.. Blanche Lincoln is perceived as NOT representing Arkansas values.. she has already drawn no less than 7 GOP contenders heading into the primary in May but probably 2 Democratic contenders one of which has statewide recognition and is well percieved.. looking a little closer at both AR2 & AR1.. there is strong movement afoot to "fire
Bery , Snyder, and Lincoln over both Cap aand Trade and the boondoggle Health Care issues.. FYI people from AR3 & AR4 are volunteering to work for the GOP candidates in the other two districts.. this is how strongly people in this state feel about what is going on in DC.. focus polling outside of Pulaski Co in AR2 to get a better sampling of that District.. Pulaski was the only one to go for Obama in the Election.. behind the scenes many 'yellow dog' Dems are quietly moving across lines.. including a well known family, McClellan, has actively come out in support of a candidate for AR2 citing difference of values..

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