Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Where Obama's really dropping

When talking about the decline in Barack Obama's approval numbers the media usually focuses on independents, or whether he's losing his base. The biggest reason his numbers are going down right now though is not related to either of those things- it's because he's losing whatever small amount of bipartisan appeal he once had.

On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.

Over the last three weeks we've done five polls where we asked Obama's approval rating- North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas-2, and Wisconsin. In two of the places an equal number of respondents approved and disapproved of his job performance while in the other three he was in the red. This is despite the fact that he won two of those places handily last year and was more or less tied in two of them. Only in the Arkansas Congressional District did he lose firmly last year. One thing these places all have in common is single digit approval ratings for Obama with the GOP. That's a big part of why his numbers are going down right now- you have to ask though- was there any chance of many of those people actually voting for him in the future? State by state numbers here:


Obama Approval with Republicans

North Carolina






Arkansas 2nd CD





RAYMEO said...

If you were to share these numbers with him, after someone explained to him what they meant, he still would not be able to make anything of them.

He would learn nothing, as he has learned nothing so far in life.

We have problems in America, and he is the beginning of all the problems we have !


Unknown said...

Could dropping health care reform help Obama in 2012, even though your polling shows failure to pass reform would depress Democratic turnout in 2010? A question that needs exploring.

Anonymous said...

It would be useful to know how the size of these groups is changing - are the independents decreasing? Are they going back, or turning in to Republicans? If former independents now declare themselves to be Republicans, and that they no longer support Obama, that would be worth knowing, and would explain the results in a different way.

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