Saturday, November 14, 2009

Some twists in Congressional favorability

It's a commonly accepted fact that Congressional Democrats are unpopular but Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular.

That's true but it shouldn't be taken as an indication that Democrats are going to be fine in 2010 because there's a pretty significant group of the electorate that dislikes both parties and they're overwhelmingly planning to vote Republican next year because they think it at least provides an opportunity for change.

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District is a good example of this. 16% of voters there don't like the Democrats or the Republicans. But they give all three of Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder's potential opponents leads of 37-40 points and they give the possible Blanche Lincoln foes we tested leads of 42-43 points.

There are very few people who dislike Congressional Democrats planning to vote for them this year anyway. But there are a fair number of people who dislike Congressional Republicans who are still planning to give them a chance.

One other thing to keep in mind when talking about the fact that Republicans are more unpopular than Democrats is that GOP voters are more likely to give their own party bad marks than Dems are- but they'll still vote for it. On our last national poll 45% of GOP voters expressed disapproval of their party while only 16% of Democrats did.


Matt Osborne said...

Or is it possible that this group is further to the right than the GOP, therefore it was their default party all along?

Dave Posh said...

We need more bleeding over to a third party, like NY-23 this month.

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