Monday, November 9, 2009

Vote on where we poll

One thing I want to say up front before getting to this month's options is that I don't really believe in doing blended primary/general election polls when an election is less than a year away. It's really two entirely different electorates so to do both well you have to conduct two separate polls. If you do a primary poll among general election voters, people will over report their likelihood of voting in a primary while if you do a general poll among primary voters you are leaving out a lot of independents and people who are soft partisans. So I'm just going to stick to doing primary polls where I pull lists based on primary vote history and general polls where I pull lists based on general vote history. For the most part that's going to mean only doing one or the other at a time.

Here are this month's choices in alphabetical order:

Delaware: Interested in looking at both the Senate and the House races, particularly to see if Mike Castle's health care vote has any impact on his crossover popularity.

Georgia: Before the climate turned sour I thought this was the best pick up opportunity for Democrats on the Senate front that no one was paying attention to. We found Johnny Isakson's approval rating at 30% last year. I'm interested to see if that's still the case, and if it is how some of the Dems in the crowded Gubernatorial field might fare if they switched races.

Illinois Primary: Very interesting choices on both the Democratic and Republican sides for Governor and Senate. With this primary less than three months away I am pretty sure we will begin monthly tracking for the rest of 2009 soon and then perhaps every other weekly tracking when the calendar turns but it's up to you whether we go ahead and do it this week.

Missouri: This may be the most under polled close Senate race next year- how is Robin Carnahan holding up with the winds blowing in a Republican direction?

Ohio: Self explanatory- close races for Governor and Senate. We showed Ted Strickland in trouble as far back as January- is that continuing onto the Senate race?

You have until Thursday to vote.


Daniel said...

Wait, what's happening in Georgia? Why don't the Democrats have as good of a chance as they did before? What changed?

Anonymous said...

Ugh...I wish y'all would poll the Florida Senate primary between Rubio and Crist. I voted for Deleware.

Anonymous said...

I wish polls about:


Jason Tolbert said...

When are you polling AR-2? Looking forward to that poll.

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