Friday, January 8, 2010

Dems favored for CT-GOV

There aren't going to be a lot of offices Democrats win for the first time since 1986 in this Republican trending year of 2010. But the Connecticut Governorship might be one of them.

Democratic front runners Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy all start out with solid leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley.

Bysiewicz looks like the most formidable candidate, leading Foley 48-26 and Fedele 50-25. Lamont and Malloy hold leads of 10-11 points against the GOP guys.

The Republican candidates are largely unknown at this point, and these numbers will likely tighten when the party has a nominee who becomes better known to the state's voters. 76% don't know enough about Foley to have formed an opinion about him and Fedele, the state's Lieutenant Governor, is even more anonymous at 79%. LGs who run on a ticket with the Governor and aren't elected in their own right don't tend to be well known, something that helped scuttle the candidacy of Michigan Lieutenant Governor John Cherry in his bid for the state's top office earlier this week.

Bysiewicz and Lamont are the best known candidates, with slightly over half of the state's voters able to register an opinion about each of them. Bysiewicz is the more popular at a 39/16 favorability ratio to Lamont's 29/28. That shouldn't be taken as an indication the Secretary of State will run away with her party's nomination though- the two have almost identical numbers among Democrats with 47% seeing Bysiewicz positively to 46% for Lamont. But Bysiewicz is considerably more popular across party lines, with 38% of independents and 25% of Republicans viewing her favorably to 19% and 11% for Lamont. Bysiewicz will be very difficult to beat in the fall assuming she wins the primary.

It's a long way until November and things could shift as all of the candidates become better known but right now Democrats are in a very strong position to take back this Governorship.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Right now I think it’s all about name recognition. The polling is meaningless at this point. But hey if someone is paying up take the money.

Anonymous said...

Finally is here this poll, i glad, was time for it.

Polling very much times unfavourable races for dems, and leaving for later favourable races like this.

And VT-Gov, MN-Gov or CO-Gov?

Anonymous said...

You risk looking quite silly when Peter Schiff wins this race for choosing not to acknowledge his contention.

And you will indeed look very silly.

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