Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Iffy on Salazar

I'm a little skeptical about whether a Ken Salazar candidacy for Governor in Colorado is a good idea for Democrats politically.

Even before going to the cabinet Salazar's approval numbers were not stellar- in August of 2008 he was at a 39/36 spread in the state.

And Colorado has not been good to Barack Obama since he won the state. His approval was already below 50% there in April, even before his numbers started their slide nationally. When Gallup released approval numbers for all 50 states in August his standing in Colorado ranked 43rd, behind places like Alabama and Kentucky where he got trounced at the ballot box. Salazar's association with the Obama administration is more likely to have hurt his standing in the state than helped it.

We've already seen some evidence of that with a neighboring state Democrat- Arizona's Janet Napolitano. In August of 2008 we found her with a stellar 54/37 Gubernatorial approval rating. By September 2009, well before the Christmas TSA disaster that could understandably have plunged her numbers back home, a 47% plurality of Arizonans viewed her negatively with only 44% having a favorable impression. Her White House experience had had an adverse effect on her standing with her former constituents.

So I'm skeptical of Salazar. Democrats would be better off with John Hickenlooper, who we found was the choice of independents and Republicans to be appointed to finish Salazar's Senate term back at the end of 2008.

We'll do a Colorado poll once the picture gets a little clearer there.

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