Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Illinois Governor Primary Numbers

A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.

Hynes' slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes' advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.

Quinn's approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.
This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes' favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.

The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.

At this point it seems the momentum is with Dillard, McKenna, and Brady with Ryan suffering from whatever the reverse of momentum is but on the Republican side it is definitely anyone's game.

A week out from the primary there are still ten plausible match ups for the general election with five Republicans and two Democrats in serious contention- it's not too often you see this kind of pile up so late in the game.

Full results here


Jeff said...

Very cool. Thanks for doing this poll- will you be doing one more?

Unknown said...

Excellent to read the results. I just saw the democratic governor debate on public tv. If anyone watched it, Hynes clearly came off as the better candidate.

Anonymous said...

Hynes is clearly the better candidate. Quinn just hasn't been up to the job during his audition. He inherited a $9 billion deficit, and will leave the next Governor a $13 billion dollar deficit.
Shame on him.

Anonymous said...

Quinn coming on strong at the end with his "positive reminder/"You know me" TV ad plus word is from people in the trenches is that most late "Undecideds" are now opting for the Gov....But no doubt-this one's a cliffhanger and is going down to the wire....

Anonymous said...

The Chicago Tribune endorsed NOTA for the Democratic Primary. The Sun-Times gave the nod to Quinn. Quinn is the only one who has proposed freezing the state pension to cut costs, and so if I had to choose, I'd go with Quinn. On the GOP side McKenna and Dillard got the Tribune and Sun-Times' respective endorsements.

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