Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Reid's standing with black voters

We're going to have a Nevada poll out tomorrow telling you the same thing about Harry Reid's standing that the last five million polls have but also looking at how some Democratic alternatives to Reid might do.

For now though it's worth taking a look at Reid's standing with black voters in the state after the last week of controversy.

The good news for Reid on that front is that his black constituents by a 48-39 margin don't think he should step down from his leadership position. Those numbers are a little shaky but at least suggest some level of forgiveness/feeling that his comments weren't that big of a deal.

At the same time Reid gets only 52% of the black vote against Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian in the poll, a weak standing for a Democrat to be sure, and worse than the 61% Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman gets in the survey. With Republicans and independents in the state pretty universally lined up against him Reid's margin for error with his base voters is very low and that 52% figure is not going to get the job done. Whether that standing is a short term reaction to the 'negro' revelation that will subside or a long term problem that will plague Reid remains to be seen.

This much seems clear: Reid's standing for reelection was perilous a week ago and now it looks even worse. Even an error free 2010 might not be enough for him to keep his seat, and any further mistakes will reduce his chances of winning to about nil. Look for the numbers tomorrow on whether Dems would be better off with someone else.


Anonymous said...

As to your little poll asking which person should be the fourht Republican for you to survey, David Patreus and Glenn Beck are NOT Republicans
Not knowing this make you people seem like retards.

JMS said...

This is terrible!! What are we doing wrong?! We've raised taxes, exploded the national debt, mocked average Americans and ignored our constituents' wishes on healthcare . . . why is everyone turning against us?!

Anonymous said...

Eager to see your polling on NV-Sen with other Dems. However, Mayor Goodman is an independent, ex-Dem. and seems more interested in the Governorship.

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